Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W5 | Damien WilliamsRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Derek CarrQB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 11.9 | 12.6 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 4.4 | 14.1 | +9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael ThomasWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | J.P. HoltzTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 10.1 | 1.7 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 14.9 | 16.4 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.0 | 11.7 | +9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Isaiah McKenzieWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 13.6 | 14.0 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 18.2 | 12.6 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 4.9 | 0.9 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Keith KirkwoodWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael GallupWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 14.3 | 13.2 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 12.2 | 10.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 3.1 | 9.3 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 2.0 | 0.9 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | D.J. MontgomeryWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 14.9 | 24.1 | +9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Gardner MinshewQB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 11.1 | 7.7 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 6.9 | 1.7 | −5.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Juwann WinfreeWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Andre BaccelliaWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 4.1 | 8.1 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 7.7 | 19.4 | +11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 13.8 | 14.7 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 20.1 | 11.4 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Lynn BowdenWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.6 | 2.7 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rondale MooreWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trey SermonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 11.3 | 18.3 | +7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Amari RodgersWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 5.2 | 8.7 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 12.8 | 3.0 | −9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.7 | 1.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Keaontay IngramRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ethan FerneaWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyreik McAllisterRB LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 10.9 | 18.6 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 8.3 | 22.4 | +14.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 7.4 | 21.7 | +14.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 8.5 | 11.3 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 3.2 | 8.4 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 10.9 | 13.0 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 1.9 | 1.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 2.4 | 1.8 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 9.1 | 12.8 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 9.1 | 4.6 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | A.T. PerryWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 2.6 | 2.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.2 | 1.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 2.1 | 3.4 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 9.8 | 15.9 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 3.8 | 7.2 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 14.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 12.1 | 23.7 | +11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Bub MeansWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs PIT) | 0.8 | 4.0 | +3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 2.1 | 1.2 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.4 | 1.5 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 13.8 | 5.6 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 4.9 | 9.2 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 11.4 | 4.9 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Brandin CooksWR DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 9.7 | 2.6 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 10.8 | 5.7 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 12.2 | 3.4 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 18.5 | 16.7 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CHI) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 4.0 | 3.5 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 16.5 | 17.9 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYG) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.1 | 1.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse