Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR myth · TE myth
Dome team outdoors: every call
Players from dome or roofed teams score less than projected in outdoor road games.
2024 backtest
375–246–68
60.4% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
380–236–65
61.7% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
53–31–8
63.1% vs 61.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 339–194–34 | 63.6% | 63.7% |
| RB | 184–116–33 | 61.3% | 61.8% |
| TE | 177–120–58 | 59.6% | 60.9% |
| QB | 55–52–8 | 51.4% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 375–246–68 | 60.4% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 380–236–65 | 61.7% | 61.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W11 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 4.1 | 8.9 | +4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.6 | 1.4 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 9.0 | 1.9 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.4 | 1.8 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | John ShenkerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 12.4 | 31.3 | +18.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 9.0 | 15.2 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 3.3 | 9.2 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | N'Keal HarryTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs JAX) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 1.0 | 1.2 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 9.3 | 2.9 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 7.2 | 5.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 3.1 | 1.6 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 4.4 | 8.7 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Zach GentryTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 6.0 | 6.1 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Harrison BryantTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 1.9 | 4.2 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 6.1 | 0.0 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.6 | 1.1 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.9 | 1.4 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | James MitchellTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cole FotheringhamTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CLE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | John ShenkerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 8.9 | 4.8 | −4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SEA) | 0.9 | 1.5 | +0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CIN) | 13.1 | 15.5 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NYJ) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 0.7 | 2.3 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TB) | 9.6 | 25.1 | +15.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 10.4 | 21.4 | +10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 10.3 | 8.3 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 2.1 | 3.3 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs SF) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs MIA) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 8.2 | 3.8 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 1.3 | 2.5 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 3.0 | 8.1 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ross DwelleyTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.5 | 6.6 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 7.5 | 6.7 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalton KeeneTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 3.5 | 0.0 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs CAR) | 8.8 | 10.0 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.7 | 4.4 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 1.2 | 2.0 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs DEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 10.9 | 17.6 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Will MalloryTE IND | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs TEN) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs NE) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs GB) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | J.P. HoltzTE NO | Fade (Dome team outdoors vs KC) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse