Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth
Middle of the field: every call
Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.
2024 backtest
238–254–36
48.4% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
35–31–1
53.0% vs 44.5% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
25–22–1
53.2% vs 48.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 70–69–11 | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| WR | 197–208–25 | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| RB | 6–8–1 | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 227–229–32 | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 45–54–5 | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| 1+ | 1–2 | 33.3% | 63.7% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 4.0 | 9.4 | +5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 11.9 | 18.7 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.6) | 9.6 | 8.7 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 13.5 | 12.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 8.1 | 14.5 | +6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.6) | 14.6 | 9.8 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.6) | 9.5 | 23.7 | +14.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 10.2 | 3.9 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 13.5 | 20.0 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | River CracraftWR MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.5) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 8.7 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 7.4 | 4.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | 15.6 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 12.1 | 22.1 | +10.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Diontae JohnsonWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 15.6 | +3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 16.8 | 16.8 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 4.1 | 2.1 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 10.1 | 12.3 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −1.1) | 13.7 | 20.2 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.6) | 9.5 | 28.4 | +18.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Middle of the field vs IND, expected −0.3) | 19.6 | 12.2 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | 1.5 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 4.9 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 11.1 | 10.2 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 7.4 | 2.8 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 14.8 | 11.2 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 12.2 | 20.7 | +8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Middle of the field vs TB, expected +0.4) | 14.4 | 12.4 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 13.7 | 7.8 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.8) | 10.8 | 9.6 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 8.0 | 7.9 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Middle of the field vs LV, expected +0.4) | 8.2 | 14.0 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.6) | 8.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Middle of the field vs TB, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | 6.9 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.7) | 13.7 | 14.3 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 8.1 | 18.7 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 5.3 | 0.0 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 7.5 | 3.9 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | 5.4 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | 12.3 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | 3.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kendrick BourneWR NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 4.7 | 18.0 | +13.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 9.5 | 4.7 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 8.8 | 1.4 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 11.2 | 7.8 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 12.4 | 28.6 | +16.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Fade (Middle of the field vs IND, expected −0.3) | 9.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 9.9 | 4.2 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Diontae JohnsonWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 6.6 | 0.0 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 9.6 | 3.3 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 13.0 | 2.0 | −11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.6) | 9.9 | 9.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 4.7 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.8) | 15.8 | 14.1 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 14.6 | 18.6 | +4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 14.4 | 29.8 | +15.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.5) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 10.1 | 5.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 13.2 | 9.4 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 1.3 | 1.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | 1.4 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 1.4 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 8.2 | 3.4 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 20.8 | 26.5 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 14.5 | 9.1 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 16.9 | 16.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 15.0 | 15.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | 1.8 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.6) | 8.2 | 10.4 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 6.5 | 0.9 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 18.1 | 8.6 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 8.0 | 9.9 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 8.5 | 15.1 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 12.0 | 19.4 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 14.7 | 11.9 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.7) | 10.7 | 25.3 | +14.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.6) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.4) | 11.0 | 13.6 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 9.0 | 7.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.7) | 11.2 | 9.4 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 20.4 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse