Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth
Middle of the field: every call
Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.
2024 backtest
238–254–36
48.4% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
35–31–1
53.0% vs 44.5% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
25–22–1
53.2% vs 48.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 70–69–11 | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| WR | 197–208–25 | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| RB | 6–8–1 | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 227–229–32 | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 45–54–5 | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| 1+ | 1–2 | 33.3% | 63.7% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W15 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 6.6 | 2.7 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.6) | 16.9 | 17.7 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 7.8 | 11.5 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Middle of the field vs GB, expected +0.6) | 14.2 | 18.3 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.4) | 9.5 | 2.9 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 5.4 | 8.4 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 6.2 | 1.5 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 18.3 | +12.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 13.4 | 24.2 | +10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −1.1) | 14.9 | 32.5 | +17.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 10.5 | 19.2 | +8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 9.5 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 3.5 | 1.1 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.9) | 13.5 | 28.1 | +14.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | David MooreWR CAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 6.7 | 4.5 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.9) | 11.4 | 13.4 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.5) | 10.8 | 7.3 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 10.9 | 17.2 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Middle of the field vs LV, expected +0.3) | 13.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Josh ReynoldsWR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | River CracraftWR MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.6) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 8.2 | 3.9 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 8.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 1.9 | 1.9 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 14.3 | 17.4 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.9) | 10.3 | 20.9 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Middle of the field vs GB, expected +0.3) | 18.1 | 10.3 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 8.0 | 13.8 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.2 | 8.4 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 17.1 | 18.9 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.5) | 13.2 | 14.9 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 9.1 | 5.9 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | 0.0 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.8) | 12.1 | 16.6 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.8) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 10.7 | 12.5 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 11.9 | 24.3 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs LV, expected +0.3) | 14.2 | 13.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mike EvansWR TB | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 11.9 | 25.8 | +13.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 4.9 | 0.0 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 8.5 | 4.6 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 3.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 10.3 | 5.7 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 11.2 | 11.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 11.1 | 26.2 | +15.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Josh ReynoldsWR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 13.3 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 10.7 | 18.9 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 8.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 12.3 | 23.7 | +11.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.7) | 12.3 | 15.7 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.7) | 13.2 | 10.6 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Noah FantTE SEA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | 5.6 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 13.7 | 27.3 | +13.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 19.1 | 11.6 | −7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.6) | 17.3 | 9.2 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 7.7 | 5.6 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 13.1 | 5.0 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 17.6 | 16.9 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.7) | 16.1 | 17.9 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 0.0 | −10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected +0.8) | 13.3 | 19.9 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 3.4 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 17.7 | 20.6 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 14.6 | 17.3 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.4) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.5) | 10.1 | 9.6 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 9.8 | 6.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 14.8 | 6.6 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.9) | 12.9 | 11.9 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 5.3 | 12.5 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.6) | 16.2 | 10.1 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs LV, expected +0.3) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 14.8 | 17.3 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 6.6 | 12.1 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.7) | 12.1 | 30.2 | +18.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse