Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth
Middle of the field: every call
Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.
2024 backtest
238–254–36
48.4% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
35–31–1
53.0% vs 44.5% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
25–22–1
53.2% vs 48.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 70–69–11 | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| WR | 197–208–25 | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| RB | 6–8–1 | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 227–229–32 | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 45–54–5 | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| 1+ | 1–2 | 33.3% | 63.7% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.8) | 15.4 | 8.9 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 4.9 | 1.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 9.1 | 11.0 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 25.5 | 19.2 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.6) | 11.4 | 5.5 | −5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Middle of the field vs LV, expected +0.3) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 7.4 | 12.0 | +4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 5.4 | 4.4 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 8.7 | 7.1 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 8.3 | 2.8 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 16.0 | 6.2 | −9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 8.9 | 4.4 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 17.2 | 5.1 | −12.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.4) | 13.4 | 14.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.8) | 15.0 | 23.9 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.5) | 15.8 | 29.4 | +13.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.7) | 8.9 | 2.2 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | 4.9 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 13.1 | 8.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeAndre HopkinsWR KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 9.7 | 7.7 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.7) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.7) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 15.5 | +12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 0.0 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 10.1 | 13.9 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 6.0 | 8.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cooper KuppWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 13.1 | 5.4 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 8.0 | 15.5 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 11.1 | 13.8 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 14.5 | 6.1 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 16.7 | 17.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 16.9 | 23.7 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 3.9 | −10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 5.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 9.3 | 8.4 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −1.8) | 15.3 | 13.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 5.8 | 2.0 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 14.6 | 11.1 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.5) | 11.9 | 4.2 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Middle of the field vs GB, expected +0.4) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.4) | 11.0 | 4.0 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | 10.5 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 18.3 | 19.9 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 2.3 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 10.3 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | 5.5 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 10.9 | 21.8 | +10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 8.5 | 9.5 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 12.8 | 15.1 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.6) | 16.9 | 15.3 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.7) | 16.9 | 13.6 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 11.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs JAX, expected +0.4) | 13.2 | 20.9 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 8.2 | 10.1 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.6) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Middle of the field vs LV, expected +0.3) | 15.1 | 28.2 | +13.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 16.2 | 14.7 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.5) | 12.7 | 4.5 | −8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.5) | 5.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Boost (Middle of the field vs GB, expected +0.3) | 8.3 | 3.2 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 15.0 | 5.6 | −9.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 12.8 | 10.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 20.6 | 30.8 | +10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 19.8 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.6) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 17.1 | 17.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Josh ReynoldsWR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.6) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | 4.8 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | 1.9 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.6) | 9.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Boost (Middle of the field vs GB, expected +0.4) | 14.5 | 5.8 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 19.3 | 26.3 | +7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 16.0 | 25.0 | +9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Gabe DavisWR JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 14.0 | 5.1 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 14.4 | 26.6 | +12.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.6) | 14.0 | 21.8 | +7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.8) | 15.7 | 19.8 | +4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 11.5 | 0.0 | −11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 8.7 | 11.2 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.8) | 20.9 | 18.4 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 12.7 | 28.0 | +15.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 11.8 | 12.5 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 9.7 | 1.9 | −7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | David BellWR CLE | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse