Matchup edge · WR myth · TE myth · RB myth
Middle of the field: every call
Defenses that allow many points on throws over the middle boost slot receivers and tight ends whose points come over the middle.
2024 backtest
238–254–36
48.4% vs 51.4% baseline
2025 backtest
35–31–1
53.0% vs 44.5% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
25–22–1
53.2% vs 48.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| TE | 70–69–11 | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| WR | 197–208–25 | 48.6% | 50.4% |
| RB | 6–8–1 | 42.9% | 55.1% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 227–229–32 | 49.8% | 50.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 45–54–5 | 45.5% | 51.2% |
| 1+ | 1–2 | 33.3% | 63.7% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 14.0 | 17.0 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 8.0 | 4.1 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 20.6 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W4 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 12.8 | 9.1 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 8.3 | 5.9 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 12.9 | 18.1 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.4) | 9.9 | 1.3 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W2 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 9.5 | 14.4 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W13 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Middle of the field vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 6.8 | 11.9 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | 2.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 4.3 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 12.5 | 7.6 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 8.2 | 5.8 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.7) | 11.2 | 18.6 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 4.3 | 2.1 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs DET, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | 19.2 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.3 | 4.1 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 4.9 | 1.6 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 9.1 | 11.0 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.4) | 13.4 | 14.6 | +1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 6.0 | 8.1 | +2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 8.0 | 15.5 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 9.1 | 5.5 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.3) | 8.5 | 9.5 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 12.8 | 10.1 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 19.8 | +8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 8.7 | 11.2 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 6.1 | 18.3 | +12.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 13.6 | 9.5 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.9) | 11.4 | 13.4 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 1.2 | 8.4 | +7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 10.7 | 12.5 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 11.1 | 26.2 | +15.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.5) | 10.7 | 18.9 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Noah FantTE SEA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | 5.6 | +0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 9.8 | 6.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.7) | 12.1 | 30.2 | +18.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.4) | 4.0 | 9.4 | +5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 13.5 | 12.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 10.2 | 3.9 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 8.7 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Middle of the field vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 8.1 | 18.7 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | 3.7 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 9.9 | 4.2 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 8.2 | 3.4 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Middle of the field vs PIT, expected +0.5) | 9.0 | 7.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 20.4 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Middle of the field vs MIN, expected +0.4) | 11.3 | 10.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.6) | 7.0 | 3.3 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | 4.1 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 7.9 | 12.6 | +4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 7.9 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cade OttonTE TB | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.4) | 9.9 | 21.7 | +11.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.3) | 3.6 | 2.2 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.5) | 8.1 | 9.5 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Fade (Middle of the field vs GB, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 13.6 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Middle of the field vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 14.6 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Middle of the field vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 8.6 | 4.4 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Middle of the field vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 8.2 | 16.8 | +8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.3) | 12.1 | 5.7 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.5) | 13.8 | 15.2 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Middle of the field vs NE, expected +0.4) | 11.2 | 8.5 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | 5.8 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Boost (Middle of the field vs LAC, expected +0.4) | 11.1 | 10.1 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.2 | 2.0 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Middle of the field vs GB, expected −0.3) | 10.9 | 17.6 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Middle of the field vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 9.7 | 11.1 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Middle of the field vs NO, expected −0.4) | 10.8 | 16.0 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | 9.3 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Middle of the field vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 12.1 | 23.7 | +11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Middle of the field vs SF, expected +0.5) | 7.1 | 3.2 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Middle of the field vs KC, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | 4.4 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Middle of the field vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 1.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W3 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Middle of the field vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 10.8 | 7.1 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse