Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W8 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −1.2) | 16.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.9) | 18.1 | 11.5 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.2) | 3.9 | 5.0 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −1.1) | 8.8 | 7.8 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.6) | 14.7 | 18.2 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.8) | 12.3 | 13.3 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.6) | 3.4 | -0.1 | −3.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 8.7 | 5.2 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7) | 16.7 | 12.1 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.6) | 8.3 | 2.9 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 5.8 | 11.5 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.8) | 7.9 | 4.3 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.6) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 13.3 | 14.9 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.7) | 16.2 | 25.5 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 3.4 | 0.9 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 17.7 | 16.8 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +1.3) | 12.5 | 18.7 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.4) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.8) | 15.2 | 18.9 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | 0.7 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.8) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.3) | 13.3 | 9.1 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 11.9 | 23.5 | +11.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.4) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 7.0 | 2.4 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.2) | 15.7 | 9.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.7) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 5.8 | 0.0 | −5.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +3.0) | 14.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 15.0 | 15.7 | +0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.9) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 14.6 | 1.8 | −12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Velus Jones Jr.RB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −1.1) | 13.9 | 8.6 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.5) | 17.6 | 9.9 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −1.2) | 16.0 | 8.5 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | 1.3 | −0.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 1.6 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.6) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.7) | 7.1 | 12.6 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | 2.3 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | 2.5 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.4) | 6.5 | 6.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 14.8 | 26.7 | +11.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 19.9 | 20.3 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.7) | 8.3 | 11.4 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.0) | 4.5 | 2.4 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 7.9 | 15.4 | +7.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 19.2 | +16.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.6) | 2.2 | 0.4 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.6) | 5.3 | 23.0 | +17.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 5.8 | 9.2 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 10.1 | 3.0 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 5.5 | 0.0 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.5) | 18.6 | 25.2 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.4) | 15.7 | 20.6 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.5) | 14.3 | 4.0 | −10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.2) | 18.3 | 8.4 | −9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 8.5 | 0.5 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 3.9 | 1.7 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.7) | 4.9 | 4.2 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.4) | 15.4 | 26.7 | +11.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.1) | 12.6 | 15.3 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | 3.8 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 3.1 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.8) | 16.2 | 8.5 | −7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | 10.0 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.8) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 11.3 | 8.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 14.9 | 20.2 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 16.3 | 9.6 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.6) | 12.3 | 7.0 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.6) | 16.1 | 11.2 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 11.9 | 16.2 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.0) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.4) | 13.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 7.4 | 7.9 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 17.0 | 9.2 | −7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.6) | 12.4 | 29.1 | +16.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.5) | 15.0 | 13.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +3.2) | 20.4 | 19.6 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse