Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W7 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.0) | 7.0 | 3.7 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 2.5 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.1) | 16.4 | 26.1 | +9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 16.4 | 23.3 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 2.8 | 5.7 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 6.4 | 23.8 | +17.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 8.7 | 7.3 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.8) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 1.1 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 5.0 | 4.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.6) | 9.7 | 10.5 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 16.4 | 32.0 | +15.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 11.3 | 16.7 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.3) | 3.6 | 1.1 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 6.0 | 1.6 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | 3.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 19.0 | 25.2 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.4) | 7.7 | 1.7 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 9.5 | 10.8 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 7.5 | 0.8 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.2) | 12.8 | 27.2 | +14.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | 6.7 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.8) | 18.6 | 7.4 | −11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.6) | 11.2 | 17.5 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 16.8 | 17.8 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | 2.1 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 12.8 | 21.0 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 17.1 | 12.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.4) | 11.9 | 10.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.9) | 18.6 | 18.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 15.9 | 0.5 | −15.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 7.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 12.9 | 21.9 | +9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 7.3 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Cam AkersRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 8.4 | -0.1 | −8.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 15.8 | 15.3 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +2.1) | 14.1 | 20.2 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 2.3 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.9) | 14.7 | -0.1 | −14.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.8) | 7.2 | 4.8 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −1.0) | 14.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 4.0 | 14.7 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.8) | 8.0 | 19.8 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 10.5 | 1.4 | −9.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.5) | 2.8 | 1.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 1.4 | -0.2 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.8) | 15.1 | 21.9 | +6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.3) | 17.5 | 25.5 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 6.0 | 2.4 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 14.4 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | 34.2 | +31.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 2.7 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 17.9 | 12.1 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.7) | 16.9 | 18.5 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 8.2 | 22.7 | +14.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 6.3 | 0.8 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 1.5 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 6.9 | 11.8 | +4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 10.1 | 1.7 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −1.3) | 18.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.7) | 18.3 | 6.3 | −12.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.4) | 4.4 | 3.4 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.9) | 13.6 | 14.0 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.7) | 10.3 | 11.7 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | 14.7 | +10.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.5) | 8.8 | 18.7 | +9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 3.4 | 10.4 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Andrew BeckRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 12.2 | 10.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Khari BlasingameRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 5.8 | 5.3 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.3) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.6) | 17.9 | 16.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4) | 4.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 7.7 | 19.4 | +11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 8.2 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.1) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.2) | 13.1 | 20.0 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.6) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 6.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Cam AkersRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.5) | 10.3 | 12.7 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.5) | 13.7 | 17.5 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse