Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W7 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | 10.0 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 16.2 | 15.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.8) | 7.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 11.3 | 8.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.6) | 14.9 | 20.2 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 16.3 | 9.6 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 8.8 | 5.2 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.6) | 12.3 | 7.0 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.4) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.6) | 4.9 | 9.7 | +4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.6) | 16.1 | 11.2 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 9.4 | 11.1 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 11.9 | 16.2 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.0) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.4) | 13.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 7.4 | 7.9 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 17.0 | 9.2 | −7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.6) | 12.4 | 29.1 | +16.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 16.2 | 13.1 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +1.5) | 15.0 | 13.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +3.2) | 20.4 | 19.6 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.0) | 7.0 | 3.7 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 2.5 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.1) | 16.4 | 26.1 | +9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 16.4 | 23.3 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 2.8 | 5.7 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 6.4 | 23.8 | +17.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.3) | 9.8 | 7.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.4) | 8.7 | 7.3 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.8) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 5.2 | 1.1 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 5.0 | 4.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.6) | 9.7 | 10.5 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.2) | 12.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 16.4 | 32.0 | +15.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 12.9 | 3.0 | −9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.7) | 13.6 | 19.3 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.5) | 11.3 | 16.7 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.3) | 3.6 | 1.1 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.8) | 7.3 | 0.0 | −7.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.5) | 6.0 | 1.6 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.0 | 3.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 11.6 | 22.1 | +10.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 13.2 | 19.7 | +6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 19.0 | 25.2 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.4) | 7.7 | 1.7 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 9.5 | 10.8 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 7.5 | 0.8 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 18.2 | +9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −1.2) | 12.8 | 27.2 | +14.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 18.3 | 35.5 | +17.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | 6.7 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 10.0 | 4.3 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.8) | 18.6 | 7.4 | −11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −0.6) | 11.2 | 17.5 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.6) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 16.8 | 17.8 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | 2.1 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 14.5 | 23.6 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 12.8 | 21.0 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 17.1 | 12.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.4) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.4) | 11.9 | 10.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.9) | 18.6 | 18.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 15.9 | 0.5 | −15.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 7.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 12.9 | 21.9 | +9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 14.1 | 6.8 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 13.3 | 7.3 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs DET, expected +0.4) | 20.6 | 16.1 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Cam AkersRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.6) | 8.4 | -0.1 | −8.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 15.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 15.8 | 15.3 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +2.1) | 14.1 | 20.2 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4) | 8.7 | 3.6 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs CLE, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 2.3 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 17.9 | 13.7 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.9) | 14.7 | -0.1 | −14.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.8) | 7.2 | 4.8 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | George PickensWR PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.6) | 14.6 | 8.3 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −1.0) | 14.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.5) | 4.0 | 14.7 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.8) | 8.0 | 19.8 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PHI, expected +0.5) | 10.5 | 1.4 | −9.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kevin HarrisRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse