Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Missed tackles: every call
Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.
2024 backtest
461–500–67
48.0% vs 50.7% baseline
2025 backtest
345–372–50
48.1% vs 50.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
59–66–9
47.2% vs 49.7% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 568–625–76 | 47.6% | 50.9% |
| WR | 176–187–27 | 48.5% | 49.8% |
| TE | 62–60–14 | 50.8% | 48.0% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 478–526–87 | 47.6% | 51.0% |
| 0.5–1 | 219–234–22 | 48.3% | 50.0% |
| 1+ | 109–112–8 | 49.3% | 48.9% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W7 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Missed tackles vs GB, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs SEA, expected +0.4) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.4) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.7) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cam AkersRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | DeeJay DallasRB JAX | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Trey SermonRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.6) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | 0.7 | −4.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | George HolaniRB SEA | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kaleb JohnsonRB PIT | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.4) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 17.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 13.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.3) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.6) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 7.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 7.9 | 6.6 | −1.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 13.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Miles SandersRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.7) | 6.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 5.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.4) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.4) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 12.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +1.1) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.5) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dameon PierceRB HOU | Boost (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs DET, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.5) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.7) | 15.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected +0.3) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Missed tackles vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.6) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Fade (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.8) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Missed tackles vs SF, expected +0.4) | 16.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Evan EngramTE JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.5) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.4) | 15.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 11.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Fade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Missed tackles vs NO, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.4) | 8.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BAL, expected −0.7) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 24.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Fade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 8.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Missed tackles vs PIT, expected −1.0) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Missed tackles vs CHI, expected −0.4) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 13.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected +0.4) | 16.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Fade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Missed tackles vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Fade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.7) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Missed tackles vs NE, expected −0.3) | 9.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse