Edgehalla

Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C

Missed tackles: every call

Defenses that miss more tackles boost players who earn many yards after the catch or on the ground.

2024 backtest

461–500–67

48.0% vs 50.7% baseline

Win rate 48.0% (95% 44.8%–51.1%) vs baseline 50.7%

2025 backtest

345–372–50

48.1% vs 50.1% baseline

Win rate 48.1% (95% 44.5%–51.8%) vs baseline 50.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

59–66–9

47.2% vs 49.7% baseline

Win rate 47.2% (95% 38.7%–55.9%) vs baseline 49.7%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB568–625–7647.6%50.9%
WR176–187–2748.5%49.8%
TE62–60–1450.8%48.0%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
0.25–0.5478–526–8747.6%51.0%
0.5–1219–234–2248.3%50.0%
1+109–112–849.3%48.9%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Missed tackles calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2024 W5Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.5)8.124.8+16.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.7)6.414.5+8.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Zach CharbonnetRB SEAFade (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected −0.3)12.46.0−6.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Carson SteeleRB KCFade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.4)5.61.2−4.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W5Braelon AllenRB NYJFade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3)6.43.8−2.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Aaron JonesRB MINBoost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.7)16.517.9+1.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W4James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Missed tackles vs WAS, expected +0.3)16.118.3+2.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Noah BrownWR WASFade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3)7.55.6−1.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Alvin KamaraRB NOBoost (Missed tackles vs ATL, expected +0.6)17.424.9+7.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Tony PollardRB TENBoost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.4)11.818.8+7.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Josh JacobsRB GBFade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.5)14.611.8−2.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Zack MossRB CINBoost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3)15.217.8+2.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W4D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.4)10.629.5+18.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Jerry JeudyWR CLEBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.4)10.913.2+2.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Rhamondre StevensonRB NEFade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.8)10.88.2−2.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Najee HarrisRB PITFade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.8)16.610.3−6.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Jerome FordRB CLEBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.5)13.415.5+2.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Isaiah LikelyTE BALFade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.3)7.83.6−4.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Breece HallRB NYJFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3)17.63.8−13.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Bijan RobinsonRB ATLFade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.8)16.611.4−5.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Emanuel WilsonRB GBFade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3)4.82.7−2.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.9)6.58.6+2.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Tyjae SpearsRB TENBoost (Missed tackles vs MIA, expected +0.3)6.511.9+5.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W4Zay FlowersWR BALFade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.4)14.82.0−12.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Adam ThielenWR CARBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)8.613.0+4.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Aaron JonesRB MINBoost (Missed tackles vs HOU, expected +0.3)15.625.8+10.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Justice HillRB BALFade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.4)8.37.4−0.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Diontae JohnsonWR CARBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.3)7.526.2+18.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Miles SandersRB CARBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7)5.311.0+5.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Craig ReynoldsRB DETFade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.6)1.40.0−1.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Josh JacobsRB GBFade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.6)12.45.8−6.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W3D'Andre SwiftRB CHIFade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.5)13.46.2−7.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Missed tackles vs NYJ, expected +0.5)5.36.7+1.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Tyler JohnsonWR LARFade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3)9.55.0−4.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Nico CollinsWR HOUFade (Missed tackles vs MIN, expected −0.3)16.112.6−3.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Chuba HubbardRB CARBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +1.2)10.627.9+17.3✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Khalil HerbertRB CHIFade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.3)5.90.9−5.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Travis EtienneRB JAXFade (Missed tackles vs BUF, expected −0.8)15.512.5−3.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Jameson WilliamsWR DETFade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3)11.41.2−10.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Rachaad WhiteRB TBFade (Missed tackles vs DEN, expected −0.3)14.78.5−6.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Ronnie RiversRB LARFade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3)1.90.9−1.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Sam LaPortaTE DETFade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3)8.65.6−3.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W3Jahmyr GibbsRB DETFade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −1.3)17.216.3−0.9✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Derrick HenryRB BALBoost (Missed tackles vs LV, expected +0.7)13.116.6+3.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Ezekiel ElliottRB DALFade (Missed tackles vs NO, expected −0.3)16.05.2−10.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Aaron JonesRB MINFade (Missed tackles vs SF, expected −0.3)14.59.8−4.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W2James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +1.0)14.619.4+4.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Cooper KuppWR LARFade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3)15.47.7−7.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Jamaal WilliamsRB NOFade (Missed tackles vs DAL, expected −0.3)5.43.9−1.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Josh JacobsRB GBFade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.6)13.813.1−0.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Jonathan TaylorRB INDBoost (Missed tackles vs GB, expected +0.3)15.015.5+0.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Chuba HubbardRB CARBoost (Missed tackles vs LAC, expected +0.4)9.211.6+2.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Ronnie RiversRB LARFade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.3)2.21.0−1.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Kyren WilliamsRB LARFade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −1.1)16.415.2−1.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Emari DemercadoRB ARIBoost (Missed tackles vs LAR, expected +0.4)3.64.6+1.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W2Emanuel WilsonRB GBFade (Missed tackles vs IND, expected −0.3)3.40.9−2.5✅Backtest ·
2024 W1Derrick HenryRB BALFade (Missed tackles vs KC, expected −0.4)14.710.6−4.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W1Aaron JonesRB MINBoost (Missed tackles vs NYG, expected +0.3)14.218.9+4.7✅Backtest ·
2024 W1Austin EkelerRB WASFade (Missed tackles vs TB, expected −0.4)11.610.2−1.4✅Backtest ·
2024 W1Alvin KamaraRB NOBoost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.7)13.922.0+8.1✅Backtest ·
2024 W1Jamaal WilliamsRB NOBoost (Missed tackles vs CAR, expected +0.3)7.312.1+4.8✅Backtest ·
2024 W1D'Andre SwiftRB CHIFade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3)14.05.0−9.0✅Backtest ·
2024 W1Khalil HerbertRB CHIFade (Missed tackles vs TEN, expected −0.3)9.60.4−9.2✅Backtest ·
2024 W1James CookRB BUFFade (Missed tackles vs ARI, expected −0.4)17.913.3−4.6✅Backtest ·
2024 W1De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Missed tackles vs JAX, expected +0.5)14.923.0+8.1✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 9 of 9 · 865 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse