Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W16 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.6) | 13.0 | 8.3 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 4.1 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.7) | 14.6 | 9.0 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 13.1 | 14.5 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.6) | 17.1 | 11.1 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 14.3 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.5) | 8.2 | 4.4 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Quintin MorrisTE JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | 1.5 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 12.3 | 12.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaret PattersonRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Najee HarrisRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.6) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 23.1 | 19.9 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 13.7 | 16.2 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.3) | 11.8 | 23.8 | +12.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | 18.7 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.9) | 15.4 | 16.6 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 5.1 | 1.2 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.5) | 18.1 | 6.3 | −11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Hunter LongTE JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Isiah PachecoRB KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 6.6 | 13.5 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.4) | 12.8 | 29.1 | +16.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected +0.4) | 15.5 | 5.7 | −9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 16.9 | 36.8 | +19.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.5) | 16.7 | 26.0 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −1.3) | 19.4 | 26.4 | +7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.9) | 9.9 | 7.4 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | James MitchellTE CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 7.1 | 2.1 | −5.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 8.6 | 9.1 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | 1.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 16.9 | 6.7 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.8) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.4) | 10.3 | 4.9 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.4) | 12.7 | 5.2 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 12.0 | 8.3 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 11.7 | 25.4 | +13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected +0.5) | 24.9 | 29.8 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.6) | 19.4 | 23.6 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 8.9 | 20.4 | +11.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 9.4 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 18.8 | 32.9 | +14.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 8.2 | 26.5 | +18.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 2.1 | 3.1 | +1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.8) | 7.2 | 0.0 | −7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 7.5 | 14.9 | +7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 10.7 | 4.6 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.9) | 19.1 | 18.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.9) | 24.7 | 46.5 | +21.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 7.6 | 17.4 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.6) | 10.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.6) | 10.6 | 14.3 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 12.0 | 9.8 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 10.6 | 1.1 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | 9.8 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.4) | 7.8 | 7.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 6.4 | 13.1 | +6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 11.4 | 2.4 | −9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 2.6 | 5.4 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 10.2 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 10.9 | 3.8 | −7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.7) | 15.3 | 6.1 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 7.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.9) | 13.2 | 14.3 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.7) | 10.6 | 31.8 | +21.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.5) | 12.6 | 19.3 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.5) | 10.3 | 6.0 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 10.2 | 1.7 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 2.3 | 4.6 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 10.6 | 12.3 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 8.0 | 8.5 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 4.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +1.1) | 10.4 | 16.5 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.5) | 8.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | 9.4 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 3.6 | 1.7 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 9.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 10.6 | 14.0 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DET, expected +0.5) | 16.3 | 11.1 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mike EvansWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.6) | 7.4 | 19.2 | +11.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 18.1 | 10.0 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 3.8 | 5.6 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 0.6 | 6.1 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +1.6) | 24.9 | 15.7 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +1.2) | 12.0 | 22.8 | +10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 11.4 | 9.5 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse