Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W13 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 13.1 | 11.3 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.5) | 11.3 | 11.2 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Pat BryantWR DEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 5.1 | 7.2 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaylin LaneWR WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 4.9 | 0.0 | −4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan WatkinsWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devin NealRB NO | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 9.9 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WAS | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.8) | 7.7 | 2.0 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | 11.5 | +9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | 8.9 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 9.4 | 21.2 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 10.8 | 11.6 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mason TaylorTE NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 7.4 | 4.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Adam ThielenWR MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.5) | 17.0 | 23.2 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mike EvansWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 9.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.5) | 16.6 | 4.0 | −12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | 5.0 | +2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 4.9 | 10.2 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 7.6 | 4.2 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 11.8 | 24.5 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.4) | 24.7 | 27.2 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 11.4 | 13.8 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.5) | 11.4 | 8.7 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 5.8 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 16.5 | 3.5 | −13.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 9.4 | 4.4 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 9.3 | 2.9 | −6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 10.4 | 4.0 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.6) | 16.7 | 12.4 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.6) | 5.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 6.6 | 5.9 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | 1.4 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 9.4 | 8.1 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | 8.2 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 12.5 | 14.4 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 14.7 | 25.0 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 12.5 | 6.7 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 12.2 | 10.6 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.8) | 13.6 | 8.8 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.4) | 14.9 | 11.5 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 12.8 | 2.0 | −10.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 15.3 | 14.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 23.0 | 29.9 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 4.5 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 7.3 | 4.1 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Javonte WilliamsRB DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 16.1 | 12.1 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 13.2 | 12.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 19.6 | 16.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 14.7 | 0.0 | −14.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | 29.6 | +13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | James CookRB BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.8) | 17.6 | 21.9 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 12.6 | 5.2 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.6) | 12.6 | 17.0 | +4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 5.9 | 5.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 5.4 | 0.0 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.5) | 6.1 | 4.2 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 9.1 | 0.5 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.5) | 18.1 | 5.8 | −12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 9.9 | 11.1 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Cade OttonTE TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 9.0 | 6.1 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 13.1 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.4) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.9) | 20.9 | 14.7 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.7) | 20.3 | 37.1 | +16.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 9.7 | 5.8 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 6.9 | 5.6 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.7) | 10.2 | 0.0 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.4) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 5.2 | 2.4 | −2.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TB, expected +0.6) | 20.4 | 16.7 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.6) | 24.0 | 55.4 | +31.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 12.6 | 9.5 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.8) | 12.7 | 11.5 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 7.9 | 3.8 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 8.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 10.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.9) | 13.9 | 24.8 | +10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.7) | 15.7 | 6.2 | −9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tez JohnsonWR TB | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 7.5 | 12.3 | +4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jack BechWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CIN, expected +0.3) | 17.4 | 11.1 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 10.2 | 8.2 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 10.3 | 24.1 | +13.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DeAndre HopkinsWR BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 5.4 | 2.1 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 15.9 | 7.1 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Raheem MostertRB LV | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.8 | 3.3 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.8) | 16.4 | 20.2 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.9) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 24.4 | 35.1 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse