Matchup edge · RB myth · WR myth · TE C
Pre-snap motion: every call
Defenses that give up more per play with pre-snap motion boost players who score on motion plays.
2024 backtest
84–83–9
50.3% vs 48.6% baseline
2025 backtest
550–530–68
50.9% vs 50.8% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
44–51–3
46.3% vs 53.8% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 316–306–34 | 50.8% | 50.5% |
| RB | 205–209–25 | 49.5% | 50.6% |
| TE | 113–98–18 | 53.5% | 50.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.25–0.5 | 455–443–62 | 50.7% | 50.2% |
| 0.5–1 | 163–151–14 | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| 1+ | 16–19–1 | 45.7% | 53.1% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W10 | Ameer AbdullahRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | 1.8 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 4.3 | 9.4 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 4.4 | 6.4 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −1.8) | 21.5 | 17.6 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 3.9 | 3.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −1.2) | 9.3 | 23.4 | +14.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kendrick BourneWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 9.0 | 2.9 | −6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 11.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 8.5 | 9.4 | +0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.6) | 11.2 | 8.3 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.5) | 15.1 | 13.1 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.4) | 13.1 | 7.1 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.7) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ty JohnsonRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 4.8 | 4.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.6) | 14.1 | 3.3 | −10.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.5) | 12.2 | 10.1 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 6.7 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 11.5 | 15.3 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LV, expected −0.3) | 15.3 | 9.4 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.9) | 22.1 | 49.6 | +27.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.6) | 14.6 | 3.9 | −10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.8) | 11.5 | 17.1 | +5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | 14.8 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.4) | 17.4 | 7.7 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.3) | 11.7 | 2.5 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 9.5 | +8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs GB, expected −0.6) | 17.8 | 16.9 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 21.2 | 16.8 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 13.8 | 15.7 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 4.2 | 2.8 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 5.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.8) | 4.5 | 0.0 | −4.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 11.6 | 23.9 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +1.2) | 20.7 | 10.7 | −10.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.9) | 12.5 | 12.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Sincere McCormickRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 11.1 | 4.1 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.4) | 12.0 | 3.3 | −8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alec PierceWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 12.9 | 18.4 | +5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 10.5 | 0.0 | −10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 15.1 | 27.7 | +12.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | 11.5 | +8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 13.9 | 12.2 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.5) | 14.3 | 19.5 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 10.0 | 8.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.5) | 22.1 | 20.3 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 12.4 | 9.2 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.6) | 10.8 | 5.5 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 2.5 | 3.4 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.8) | 9.6 | 5.7 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 12.9 | 6.5 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josh DownsWR IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.6) | 11.0 | 1.3 | −9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.4) | 12.0 | 10.3 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael MayerTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 5.6 | 5.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs WAS, expected +0.6) | 21.1 | 38.2 | +17.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.1) | 13.9 | 3.7 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.5) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.4) | 3.7 | 0.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.6) | 11.1 | 13.6 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 14.9 | 20.7 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.2) | 12.7 | 15.3 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.6) | 11.7 | 17.9 | +6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jordan WatkinsWR SF | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 9.6 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Omarion HamptonRB LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs PIT, expected +0.3) | 13.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cam SkatteboRB NYG | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs CHI, expected +0.5) | 12.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jack BechWR LV | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.4) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Mason TaylorTE NYJ | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 8.2 | 1.4 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs TEN, expected +0.4) | 13.4 | 6.1 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | DeAndre HopkinsWR BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.3) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Brandin CooksWR NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 4.3 | 3.6 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NO, expected +0.4) | 18.5 | 23.0 | +4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.7) | 13.2 | 12.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 4.4 | 3.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs MIA, expected +0.6) | 18.7 | 13.1 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs BAL, expected +0.6) | 13.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.5) | 9.7 | 9.1 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.5) | 22.8 | 34.3 | +11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | 6.9 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.7) | 13.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs ATL, expected −0.4) | 7.5 | 2.9 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | 1.2 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Pre-snap motion vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −1.0) | 11.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −1.0) | 11.9 | 0.7 | −11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Pre-snap motion vs DEN, expected −0.5) | 8.5 | 13.7 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse