Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W17 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 11.7 | 22.4 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Blake BellTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 1.4 | -0.6 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 8.3 | 4.1 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Noah FantTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 7.5 | 8.3 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 4.9 | 1.6 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 9.1 | 11.0 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 8.9 | 7.9 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 2.8 | 1.8 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.4 | 1.1 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jared WileyTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.3 | 1.8 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 3.5 | 1.5 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.5 | 6.7 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 2.8 | 5.1 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.4 | 2.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 1.5 | 3.8 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 12.8 | 10.1 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 3.9 | 4.1 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 0.8 | 3.7 | +3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 10.2 | 21.3 | +11.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 1.7 | 1.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyree JacksonTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Parker HesseTE DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sean McKeonTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Lawrence CagerTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 7.7 | 5.6 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Shane ZylstraTE DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jack StollTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 2.9 | 2.3 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | James MitchellTE DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Henry PearsonTE GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 4.5 | 8.3 | +3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.5 | 1.5 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ben SimsTE GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 8.8 | 13.8 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 10.6 | 15.6 | +5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 4.6 | 10.4 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 10.2 | 3.9 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 3.7 | 6.8 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 6.2 | 9.9 | +3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 2.9 | 4.4 | +1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.4 | 3.9 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 8.1 | 18.7 | +10.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 8.5 | 11.1 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Noah TogiaiTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Albert OkwuegbunamTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | John BatesTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.0 | 3.7 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cole TurnerTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.9 | 16.3 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 10.9 | 18.8 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 7.7 | 7.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 2.5 | 1.4 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Erick AllTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
Page 1 of 2 · 172 callsOlder
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse