Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W13Jackson MeeksTE DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Dalton SchultzTE HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)8.51.8−6.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Irv SmithTE HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Dawson KnoxTE BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.2)6.14.7−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Harrison BryantTE HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W12Cade StoverTE HOUFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)2.00.0−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W12Jackson HawesTE BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.2)3.14.6+1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W12Keleki LatuTE BUFFade (Short week vs HOU, expected +0.2)1.50.0−1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Hunter HenryTE NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.2)12.78.5−4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Mitchell WilcoxTE NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.2)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Kenny YeboahTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Stone SmarttTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jelani WoodsTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jeremy RuckertTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)2.16.3+4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W11Zack KuntzTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Jack WestoverTE NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.2)0.50.0−0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Jaheim BellTE NEFade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W11Mason TaylorTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2)8.37.0−1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Marcedes LewisTE DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.2)0.30.0−0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Evan EngramTE DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.2)8.03.2−4.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Ian ThomasTE LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)1.10.0−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Adam TrautmanTE DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.2)3.31.2−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)4.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Lucas KrullTE DENFade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.2)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10John ShenkerTE LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W10Michael MayerTE LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)5.65.2−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W10Brock BowersTE LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)13.93.7−10.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Carter RunyonTE LVFade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Darren WallerTE MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)6.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Mark AndrewsTE BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)10.916.6+5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Greg DulcichTE MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)0.69.9+9.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Tanner ConnerTE MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)4.20.0−4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Isaiah LikelyTE BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)4.79.0+4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Charlie KolarTE BALFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)1.910.3+8.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W9Hayden RucciTE MIAFade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W8Eric TomlinsonTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Nick VannettTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Will DisslyTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Tyler ConklinTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)2.30.0−2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Hayden HurstTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8T.J. HockensonTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)8.94.6−4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Josh OliverTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)2.50.0−2.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Nick MuseTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Tucker FiskTE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)0.70.0−0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W8Ben SimsTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Oronde Gadsden IITE LACFade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2)9.518.7+9.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W8Ben YurosekTE MINFade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2)0.11.5+1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W7MyCole PruittTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Jonnu SmithTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)8.411.8+3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Drew SampleTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)4.20.0−4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Noah FantTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)6.614.4+7.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Pat FreiermuthTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)6.028.1+22.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Darnell WashingtonTE PITFade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2)3.59.2+5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W7Tanner McLachlanTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W7Cam GrandyTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)1.20.0−1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W7Erick AllTE CINFade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2)4.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Chris ManhertzTE NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.2)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W6C.J. UzomahTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Dallas GoedertTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)10.526.0+15.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W6Zach DavidsonTE NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Kylen GransonTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)1.10.0−1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W6Daniel BellingerTE NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.2)2.50.0−2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W6E.J. JenkinsTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W6Cameron LatuTE PHIFade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2)0.10.0−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W6Theo JohnsonTE NYGFade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.2)7.24.7−2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Tyler HigbeeTE LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5George KittleTE SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)9.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W5Colby ParkinsonTE LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2)4.40.0−4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Luke FarrellTE SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)2.81.8−1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Jake TongesTE SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)4.717.1+12.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Brayden WillisTE SFFade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2)0.50.0−0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W5Davis AllenTE LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2)2.84.4+1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W5Terrance FergusonTE LARFade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2)0.43.1+2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Pharaoh BrownTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Eric SaubertTE SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2)1.40.0−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Tyler MabryTE SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Josiah DeguaraTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Trey McBrideTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)14.912.2−2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Travis VokolekTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Elijah HigginsTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)2.80.0−2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Tip ReimanTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)1.90.0−1.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W4AJ BarnerTE SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2)5.312.2+6.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Elijah ArroyoTE SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2)3.66.4+2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Dawson KnoxTE BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)5.40.0−5.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Greg DulcichTE MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Tanner ConnerTE MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)3.02.3−0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Julian HillTE MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)2.41.4−0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Dalton KincaidTE BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)8.117.6+9.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Jackson HawesTE BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)1.67.5+5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Zach ErtzTE WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)8.518.4+9.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W2John BatesTE WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)1.30.0−1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W2John FitzPatrickTE GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)0.60.0−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W2Josh WhyleTE GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Ben SimsTE GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)8.224.4+16.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Luke MusgraveTE GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)2.55.2+2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Colson YankoffTE WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.20.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W2Ben SinnottTE WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)0.51.7+1.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W17Marcedes LewisTE CHIFade (Short week vs SEA)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2024 W17Travis KelceTE KCFade (Short week vs PIT)11.722.4+10.7❌Backtest ·

NewerPage 2 of 4 · 370 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse