Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W9 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2) | 1.9 | 10.3 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Hayden RucciTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Nick VannettTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2) | 8.9 | 4.6 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 9.5 | 18.7 | +9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2) | 0.1 | 1.5 | +1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2) | 8.4 | 11.8 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Noah FantTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2) | 6.6 | 14.4 | +7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2) | 6.0 | 28.1 | +22.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.2) | 3.5 | 9.2 | +5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tanner McLachlanTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Erick AllTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.2) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2) | 10.5 | 26.0 | +15.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zach DavidsonTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.2) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.2) | 7.2 | 4.7 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | George KittleTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2) | 9.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2) | 2.8 | 1.8 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jake TongesTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2) | 4.7 | 17.1 | +12.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2) | 2.8 | 4.4 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2) | 0.4 | 3.1 | +2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Pharaoh BrownTE ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Josiah DeguaraTE ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 14.9 | 12.2 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2) | 5.3 | 12.2 | +6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Elijah ArroyoTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2) | 3.6 | 6.4 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2) | 5.4 | 0.0 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2) | 3.0 | 2.3 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2) | 2.4 | 1.4 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2) | 8.1 | 17.6 | +9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2) | 1.6 | 7.5 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2) | 8.5 | 18.4 | +9.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | John BatesTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Ben SimsTE GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 8.2 | 24.4 | +16.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 2.5 | 5.2 | +2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Colson YankoffTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | 1.7 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Travis KelceTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 11.7 | 22.4 | +10.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Blake BellTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 1.4 | -0.6 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 8.3 | 4.1 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Noah FantTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 7.5 | 8.3 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Noah GrayTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 4.9 | 1.6 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 9.1 | 11.0 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 8.9 | 7.9 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 2.8 | 1.8 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.4 | 1.1 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jared WileyTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.3 | 1.8 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 3.5 | 1.5 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.5 | 6.7 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 2.8 | 5.1 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.4 | 2.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse