Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W11 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.6 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tyler JohnsonWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3) | 5.1 | 0.0 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0) | 12.4 | 8.4 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 9.2 | 6.1 | −3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3) | 3.6 | 1.6 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.0) | 4.7 | 1.1 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Drake MayeQB NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected +0.5) | 22.3 | 15.4 | −6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Adonai MitchellWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | 2.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Fade (Short week vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mason TaylorTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs NE, expected +0.2) | 8.3 | 7.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Geno SmithQB LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.5) | 11.7 | 4.4 | −7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.2) | 8.0 | 3.2 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3) | 15.6 | 5.4 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ian ThomasTE LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Trent SherfieldWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | J.K. DobbinsRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0) | 15.3 | 9.4 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.2) | 3.3 | 1.2 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 5.5 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Brock BowersTE LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected +0.2) | 13.9 | 3.7 | −10.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Bo NixQB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.5) | 20.1 | 5.8 | −14.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 5.2 | 1.4 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jack BechWR LV | Fade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LV, expected +0.0) | 8.8 | 3.8 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | DeAndre HopkinsWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 18.7 | 13.1 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 1.7 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 8.1 | 3.5 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 14.9 | 8.5 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 15.6 | 14.2 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.2) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 18.0 | 16.6 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 17.6 | 11.4 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 8.3 | 7.1 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 1.1 | 0.1 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | LaJohntay WesterWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | 1.9 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Adam ThielenWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 13.0 | 8.4 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Carson WentzQB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.5) | 14.1 | 7.8 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 8.4 | 5.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tyler ConklinTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.2) | 8.9 | 4.6 | −4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Justin JeffersonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 16.0 | 14.4 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 14.3 | 1.6 | −12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.2) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 12.6 | 0.0 | −12.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 12.8 | 11.6 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tai FeltonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Samaje PerineRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 3.7 | 3.1 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 16.4 | 8.0 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 11.3 | 3.5 | −7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CIN, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 14.0 | 12.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs PIT, expected +0.2) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 17.2 | 8.7 | −8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 3.2 | 1.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Gunner OlszewskiWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 15.1 | 14.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.2) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 8.9 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | John Metchie IIIWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected −0.3) | 4.8 | 2.7 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.2) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 7.4 | 0.6 | −6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected +0.2) | 7.2 | 4.7 | −2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Beaux CollinsWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | 13.8 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | 1.9 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Malik TurnerWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.2) | 4.4 | 0.0 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2) | 2.8 | 1.8 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 3.5 | 1.2 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Skyy MooreWR SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | 0.1 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Fade (Short week vs LAR, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs SF, expected +0.0) | 4.8 | 1.3 | −3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 11.6 | 6.6 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.5) | 16.6 | 16.1 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Trey McBrideTE ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 14.9 | 12.2 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 12.7 | 12.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 18.6 | 13.0 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 7.5 | 4.5 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse