Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 13.0 | 21.3 | +8.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | AJ DillonRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 13.0 | 9.4 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 3.7 | 4.9 | +1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 1.9 | 0.4 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 5.0 | 2.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 14.7 | 21.0 | +6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 21.8 | 10.4 | −11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dante MillerRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Sione VakiRB DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 11.3 | 14.5 | +3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | MarShawn LloydRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 2.7 | -0.2 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nick ChubbRB CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 5.5 | 19.0 | +13.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Anthony McFarlandRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 12.9 | 7.4 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 8.3 | 15.4 | +7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 9.0 | 3.7 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jonathan WilliamsRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alex ArmahRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 11.7 | 17.6 | +5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 2.9 | 1.6 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 19.6 | 33.8 | +14.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Khari BlasingameRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Derrick GoreRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 5.4 | 5.9 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 8.4 | 14.2 | +5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 20.1 | 14.1 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 8.4 | 1.8 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zack MossRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 11.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chris EvansRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 12.7 | 22.4 | +9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 4.6 | -0.1 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 17.6 | 16.6 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 2.6 | 2.3 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 16.9 | 10.5 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 5.7 | 0.9 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 18.1 | 11.5 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Myles GaskinRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 18.1 | 22.6 | +4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 2.9 | 2.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dwayne WashingtonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 18.3 | 8.4 | −9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.9 | 1.7 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Adam PrenticeRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 12.4 | 26.1 | +13.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.8 | 5.7 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 6.1 | 3.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.3 | 0.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 2.7 | 10.6 | +7.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 16.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 2.5 | 3.8 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 14.3 | 9.2 | −5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 14.8 | 20.9 | +6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | SaRodorick Thompson Jr.RB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs SF) | 8.9 | 4.5 | −4.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse