Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2024 W5Kirk CousinsQB ATLFade (Short week vs TB)15.534.4+18.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Mike EvansWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL)14.523.2+8.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Sterling ShepardWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL)3.87.4+3.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB)9.612.6+3.0❌Backtest ·
2024 W5KhaDarel HodgeWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB)1.514.7+13.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Baker MayfieldQB TBFade (Short week vs ATL)15.223.4+8.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Darnell MooneyWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB)11.931.5+19.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Kyle PittsTE ATLFade (Short week vs TB)7.915.8+7.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W5Drake LondonWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB)14.733.4+18.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Darius SlaytonWR NYGFade (Short week vs DAL)5.98.6+2.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Rico DowdleRB DALFade (Short week vs NYG)8.213.1+4.9❌Backtest ·
2024 W4CeeDee LambWR DALFade (Short week vs NYG)18.423.6+5.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Jake FergusonTE DALFade (Short week vs NYG)10.711.9+1.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYGFade (Short week vs DAL)9.018.1+9.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Hunter LuepkeRB DALFade (Short week vs NYG)1.84.2+2.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W4Malik NabersWR NYGFade (Short week vs DAL)16.323.1+6.8❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Aaron RodgersQB NYJFade (Short week vs NE)14.321.0+6.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Mike WilliamsWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE)1.96.4+4.5❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Tyler ConklinTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE)6.714.3+7.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Allen LazardWR NYJFade (Short week vs NE)8.613.8+5.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Antonio GibsonRB NEFade (Short week vs NYJ)5.36.7+1.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Jeremy RuckertTE NYJFade (Short week vs NE)2.33.5+1.2❌Backtest ·
2024 W3DeMario DouglasWR NEFade (Short week vs NYJ)4.814.8+10.1❌Backtest ·
2024 W3Braelon AllenRB NYJFade (Short week vs NE)7.29.8+2.6❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Jonnu SmithTE MIAFade (Short week vs BUF)4.011.3+7.3❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Ty JohnsonRB BUFFade (Short week vs MIA)2.84.2+1.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W2James CookRB BUFFade (Short week vs MIA)14.828.5+13.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Khalil ShakirWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA)7.210.6+3.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Grant DuBoseWR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF)0.92.3+1.4❌Backtest ·
2024 W2De'Von AchaneRB MIAFade (Short week vs BUF)17.929.5+11.7❌Backtest ·
2024 W2Ray DavisRB BUFFade (Short week vs MIA)2.63.8+1.2❌Backtest ·

NewerPage 4 of 4 · 331 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse