Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W4 | Pharaoh BrownTE ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | James ConnerRB ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 12.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Myles GaskinRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Josiah DeguaraTE ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0) | 10.6 | 0.1 | −10.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Travis VokolekTE ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | George HolaniRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Fade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jacardia WrightRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Robbie OuztsRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 6.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Mecole HardmanWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Gabe DavisWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 10.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Fade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Fade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Chris MooreWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Robbie ChosenWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | River CracraftWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Tay MartinWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Treylon BurksWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 8.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Fade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Ben SimsTE GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 9.4 | 0.0 | −9.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W2 | MarShawn LloydRB GB | Fade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 3.3 | 0.2 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Blake BellTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Richie JamesWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Andrew BeckRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mecole HardmanWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | J.J. TaylorRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | La'Mical PerineRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brevin JordanTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ben MasonTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justyn RossWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Teagan QuitorianoTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Skyy MooreWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs SEA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tank DellWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 10.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | George HolaniRB SEA | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | British BrooksRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs KC) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jared WileyTE KC | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Phillip DorsettWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keelan DossWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jalen GuytonWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 12.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Simi FehokoWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs LAC) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse