Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 5.7 | 0.4 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jared GoffQB DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 17.6 | 16.9 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 14.8 | 11.8 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | River CracraftWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 6.1 | 2.3 | −3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 7.2 | 2.8 | −4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 13.0 | 9.4 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 7.7 | 5.6 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 18.1 | 5.9 | −12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brock WrightTE DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 2.9 | 2.3 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 17.1 | 12.3 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 13.3 | 9.6 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 8.2 | 6.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 8.2 | 2.6 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 10.4 | 8.7 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 3.9 | 1.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.5 | 1.5 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 1.9 | 0.4 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 5.0 | 2.0 | −3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ben SimsTE GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 3.9 | 1.2 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 21.8 | 10.4 | −11.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 10.3 | 4.5 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 2.7 | -0.2 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David NjokuTE CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 10.2 | 3.9 | −6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 12.9 | 7.4 | −5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 8.7 | 5.1 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | George PickensWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 14.2 | 8.8 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 9.0 | 3.7 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 7.4 | 2.8 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 8.8 | 1.4 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 2.9 | 1.6 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 4.3 | 2.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 13.0 | 2.0 | −11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 14.9 | 11.5 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 20.5 | 18.7 | −1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 2.8 | 1.4 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 12.2 | 6.9 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 3.7 | 1.8 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 18.1 | 13.4 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ben SinnottTE WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 20.1 | 14.1 | −6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Mike GesickiTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 7.7 | 7.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Justice HillRB BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 8.4 | 1.8 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Khalil HerbertRB CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 2.5 | 1.4 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 7.0 | 4.9 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 16.0 | 7.4 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mike WilliamsWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 3.9 | 1.6 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 4.6 | -0.1 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 17.6 | 16.6 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 7.1 | 0.7 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 7.2 | 5.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.1 | 1.4 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 16.9 | 10.5 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier GipsonWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 14.1 | 11.5 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 5.7 | 0.9 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.9 | -0.2 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 4.7 | 2.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 18.1 | 11.5 | −6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Robert TonyanTE MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Brandon PowellWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 8.7 | 3.7 | −5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyler JohnsonWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 7.4 | 1.6 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 6.5 | 3.6 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Jordan AddisonWR MIN | Fade (Short week vs LAR) | 11.2 | 4.2 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Short week vs MIN) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Alvin KamaraRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 18.3 | 8.4 | −9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jamaal WilliamsRB NO | Fade (Short week vs DEN) | 3.9 | 1.7 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 11.8 | 0.0 | −11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Fade (Short week vs NO) | 4.2 | 3.2 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse