Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth
Short week: every call
Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.
2024 backtest
241–151–41
61.5% vs 61.4% baseline
2025 backtest
225–151–39
59.8% vs 61.4% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
30–29–9
50.8% vs 61.3% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 211–119–21 | 63.9% | 63.7% |
| TE | 104–73–33 | 58.8% | 60.9% |
| RB | 122–71–21 | 63.2% | 61.8% |
| QB | 29–39–5 | 42.6% | 50.4% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 241–151–41 | 61.5% | 61.4% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 214–130–35 | 62.2% | 62.4% |
| 0.5–1 | 11–21–4 | 34.4% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Isaiah HodginsWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Collin JohnsonWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 18.1 | 5.9 | −12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 10.0 | 11.3 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 17.1 | 12.3 | −4.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Samori ToureWR GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 13.3 | 9.6 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 8.2 | 6.1 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 4.3 | 9.5 | +5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 8.2 | 2.6 | −5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 10.4 | 8.7 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 7.4 | 7.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Malik HeathWR GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bryce Ford-WheatonWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Fade (Short week vs CHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 3.9 | 1.0 | −2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 2.0 | 2.8 | +0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 3.9 | 1.2 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Fade (Short week vs MIA) | 13.1 | 19.7 | +6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Fade (Short week vs DAL) | 13.1 | 15.3 | +2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Fade (Short week vs NYG) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Short week vs GB) | 3.1 | 2.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Fade (Short week vs DET) | 10.3 | 4.5 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Marquise GoodwinWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | James ProcheWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 11.4 | 14.5 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 4.6 | 5.9 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 8.7 | 5.1 | −3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | George PickensWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 14.2 | 8.8 | −5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David BellWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 4.9 | 16.8 | +11.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 7.4 | 2.8 | −4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Short week vs PIT) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Fade (Short week vs CLE) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Julio JonesWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 2.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jamison CrowderWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | John RossWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 8.8 | 1.4 | −7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Byron PringleWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 4.3 | 2.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Parris CampbellWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 13.0 | 2.0 | −11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 14.9 | 11.5 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Quez WatkinsWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 2.8 | 1.4 | −1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 12.2 | 6.9 | −5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 3.7 | 1.8 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Fade (Short week vs PHI) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Fade (Short week vs WAS) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 5.0 | 7.6 | +2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Diontae JohnsonWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 9.7 | 1.6 | −8.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Stanley MorganWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 13.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 9.6 | 17.4 | +7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 0.7 | 20.5 | +19.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 20.4 | 55.4 | +35.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 7.0 | 4.9 | −2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Shedrick JacksonWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Malik CunninghamWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 16.0 | 7.4 | −8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Isaiah WilliamsWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Fade (Short week vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Fade (Short week vs BAL) | 2.4 | 2.1 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 2.9 | 6.4 | +3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 12.8 | 22.1 | +9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Stefon DiggsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 13.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Mike WilliamsWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 3.9 | 1.6 | −2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Malik TaylorWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 12.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Irvin CharlesWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Fade (Short week vs NYJ) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 16.1 | 30.0 | +13.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jason BrownleeWR NYJ | Fade (Short week vs HOU) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse