Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W4James ConnerRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)12.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Eric SaubertTE SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2)1.40.0−1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Cooper KuppWR SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3)11.66.6−5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Sam DarnoldQB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.5)15.316.1+0.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Steven SimsWR ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Kyler MurrayQB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.5)16.616.1−0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Myles GaskinRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Greg DortchWR ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.87.9+4.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W4D'Ernest JohnsonRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Tony JonesRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Cody WhiteWR SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Tyler MabryTE SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Josiah DeguaraTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Simi FehokoWR ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Michael CarterRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)10.60.1−10.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Dareke YoungWR SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3)1.00.0−1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Trey McBrideTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)14.912.2−2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)12.712.0−0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Travis VokolekTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Brady RussellRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.70.0−0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3)18.613.0−5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Michael WilsonWR ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)7.54.5−3.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Kenny McIntoshRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Emari DemercadoRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.910.1+7.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Jake BoboWR SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3)1.32.7+1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Elijah HigginsTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)2.80.0−2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Zach CharbonnetRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)9.012.4+3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W4George HolaniRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)4.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Xavier WeaverWR ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)2.00.0−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Tip ReimanTE ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.2)1.90.0−1.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W4AJ BarnerTE SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2)5.312.2+6.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)12.918.6+5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Trey BensonRB ARIFade (Short week vs SEA, expected +0.0)6.910.4+3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W4Jacardia WrightRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Tory HortonWR SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected −0.3)6.92.0−4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W4Robbie OuztsRB SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.0)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Elijah ArroyoTE SEAFade (Short week vs ARI, expected +0.2)3.66.4+2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Amari CooperWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)6.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Tyreek HillWR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)15.615.9+0.3pushBacktest ·
2025 W3Curtis SamuelWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Jeff WilsonRB MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Josh AllenQB BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.5)24.923.0−1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Alec IngoldRB MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)3.00.0−3.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Mecole HardmanWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Ty JohnsonRB BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)6.33.1−3.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Dawson KnoxTE BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)5.40.0−5.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)5.00.0−5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Reggie GilliamRB BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.70.0−0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Gabe DavisWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)10.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Tua TagovailoaQB MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.5)12.912.8−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W3Jaylen WaddleWR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)10.314.9+4.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Dee EskridgeWR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)2.30.0−2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Elijah MooreWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)4.66.1+1.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Josh PalmerWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)8.81.5−7.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W3James CookRB BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)19.720.8+1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Greg DulcichTE MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Khalil ShakirWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)10.814.5+3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Tanner ConnerTE MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)3.02.3−0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Jalen VirgilWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Erik EzukanmaWR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Grant DuBoseWR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Tyrell ShaversWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)1.74.4+2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Julian HillTE MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.2)2.41.4−0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Dalton KincaidTE BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)8.117.6+9.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W3De'Von AchaneRB MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)16.716.1−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Jaylen WrightRB MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Ray DavisRB BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.0)5.90.0−5.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Malik WashingtonWR MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected −0.3)6.36.2−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W3Keon ColemanWR BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected −0.3)12.15.0−7.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W3Jackson HawesTE BUFFade (Short week vs MIA, expected +0.2)1.67.5+5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W3Ollie Gordon IIRB MIAFade (Short week vs BUF, expected +0.0)2.69.8+7.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Zach ErtzTE WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)8.518.4+9.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Jamison CrowderWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Chris MooreWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Robbie ChosenWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Noah BrownWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)7.61.9−5.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W2Austin EkelerRB WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)11.04.4−6.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W2Jeremy McNicholsRB WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)2.70.0−2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W2River CracraftWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Terry McLaurinWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)11.99.8−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W2Josh JacobsRB GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)16.414.4−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W2Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)12.317.4+5.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Jordan LoveQB GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.5)17.520.9+3.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W2K.J. OsbornWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2John BatesTE WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.2)1.30.0−1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W2John FitzPatrickTE GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)0.60.0−0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W2Tay MartinWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Treylon BurksWR WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Romeo DoubsWR GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)11.311.8+0.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Christian WatsonWR GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)8.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Dontayvion WicksWR GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)6.68.4+1.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Malik HeathWR GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)2.04.7+2.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Josh WhyleTE GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASFade (Short week vs GB, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Chris BrooksRB GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)4.75.7+1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W2Emanuel WilsonRB GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.0)4.00.0−4.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Ben SimsTE GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W2Tucker KraftTE GBFade (Short week vs WAS, expected +0.2)8.224.4+16.2❌Backtest ·

NewerPage 7 of 8 · 711 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse