Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB myth · WR myth · TE myth

Short week: every call

Teams on four or fewer days of rest (Thursday after Sunday) score fewer fantasy points than projected.

2024 backtest

241–151–41

61.5% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 61.5% (95% 56.6%–66.2%) vs baseline 61.4%

2025 backtest

225–151–39

59.8% vs 61.4% baseline

Win rate 59.8% (95% 54.8%–64.7%) vs baseline 61.4%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

30–29–9

50.8% vs 61.3% baseline

Win rate 50.8% (95% 38.4%–63.2%) vs baseline 61.3%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
WR211–119–2163.9%63.7%
TE104–73–3358.8%60.9%
RB122–71–2163.2%61.8%
QB29–39–542.6%50.4%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag241–151–4161.5%61.4%
0.25–0.5214–130–3562.2%62.4%
0.5–111–21–434.4%50.4%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Short week calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W17Allen RobinsonWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Kalif RaymondWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)4.01.5−2.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W17JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)3.44.6+1.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Courtland SuttonWR DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)16.68.0−8.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Brandon PowellWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)3.84.3+0.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Tom KennedyWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Parris CampbellWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Marquise BrownWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)5.71.7−4.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Justin JeffersonWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)14.67.0−7.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17CeeDee LambWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)18.69.6−9.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Michael BandyWR DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)2.03.4+1.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)17.414.8−2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jameson WilliamsWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)16.65.7−10.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W17George PickensWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)19.111.8−7.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jalen NailorWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)6.10.0−6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jalen TolbertWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)4.77.1+2.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W17KaVontae TurpinWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)5.815.6+9.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Tyquan ThorntonWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jason BrownleeWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Nikko RemigioWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jalen CropperWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Malik CunninghamWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Marvin Mims Jr.WR DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)6.34.0−2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Jordan AddisonWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)11.212.5+1.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W17Jonathan MingoWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)2.00.0−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Rashee RiceWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)11.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ryan FlournoyWR DALFade (Short week vs WAS, expected −0.3)6.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Troy FranklinWR DENFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)12.45.7−6.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Xavier WorthyWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)8.40.1−8.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W17Tai FeltonWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Dominic LovettWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Myles PriceWR MINFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jalen RoyalsWR KCFade (Short week vs DEN, expected −0.3)0.40.0−0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W17Isaac TeSlaaWR DETFade (Short week vs MIN, expected −0.3)5.213.9+8.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Davante AdamsWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)12.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Cooper KuppWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)9.16.9−2.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Cody WhiteWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tutu AtwellWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)4.20.0−4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Dareke YoungWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Rashid ShaheedWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)8.69.1+0.5pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Xavier SmithWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.37.7+4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)19.423.6+4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jake BoboWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Puka NacuaWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)24.746.5+21.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jordan WhittingtonWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)3.82.9−0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Konata MumpfieldWR LARFade (Short week vs SEA, expected −0.3)1.77.0+5.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Tory HortonWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)4.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ricky White IIIWR SEAFade (Short week vs LAR, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Mike EvansWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)7.419.2+11.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Sterling ShepardWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)6.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jamal AgnewWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Chris Godwin Jr.WR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)9.814.0+4.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15KhaDarel HodgeWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15David SillsWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)4.513.8+9.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Darnell MooneyWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)10.96.5−4.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Chris BlairWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)1.90.0−1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Deven ThompkinsWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Rakim JarrettWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ryan MillerWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Dylan DrummondWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)5.30.0−5.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Trey PalmerWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Casey WashingtonWR ATLFade (Short week vs TB, expected −0.3)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Kameron JohnsonWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jalen McMillanWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)7.65.8−1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Emeka EgbukaWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)13.410.4−3.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tez JohnsonWR TBFade (Short week vs ATL, expected −0.3)5.90.0−5.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W13DeAndre HopkinsWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)6.24.5−1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Allen RobinsonWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nelson AgholorWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)5.20.0−5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Anthony MillerWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Trenton IrwinWR CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)3.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Tom KennedyWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)1.77.6+5.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Parris CampbellWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Marquise BrownWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)7.810.0+2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13CeeDee LambWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)16.024.2+8.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Rashod BatemanWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)8.70.0−8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Tylan WallaceWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Ja'Marr ChaseWR CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)24.518.0−6.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)24.10.0−24.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Bo MeltonWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)3.01.5−1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jameson WilliamsWR DETFade (Short week vs GB, expected −0.3)13.226.9+13.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W13George PickensWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)17.516.8−0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Kendric PryorWR CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Jalen TolbertWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)4.60.0−4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13KaVontae TurpinWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)4.78.1+3.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Romeo DoubsWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)13.512.0−1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Tyquan ThorntonWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)5.20.0−5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Christian WatsonWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)12.218.3+6.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Dontayvion WicksWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)7.528.0+20.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W13Malik HeathWR GBFade (Short week vs DET, expected −0.3)1.60.0−1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jason BrownleeWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Nikko RemigioWR KCFade (Short week vs DAL, expected −0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Charlie JonesWR CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)2.50.0−2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Andrei IosivasWR CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)11.99.9−2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W13Jalen CropperWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Mitchell TinsleyWR CINFade (Short week vs BAL, expected −0.3)4.04.2+0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W13Jonathan MingoWR DALFade (Short week vs KC, expected −0.3)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W13Zay FlowersWR BALFade (Short week vs CIN, expected −0.3)18.70.6−18.1✅Backtest ·

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How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse