Matchup edge · QB C · WR C · TE myth
Wind 15+ mph: every call
Outdoor games with wind of 15 mph or more cost passers and receivers points.
2024 backtest
134–87–21
60.6% vs 61.2% baseline
2025 backtest
206–90–24
69.6% vs 61.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
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first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
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no graded calls
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| WR | 194–90–18 | 68.3% | 63.7% |
| QB | 38–25–3 | 60.3% | 50.4% |
| TE | 108–62–24 | 63.5% | 60.9% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 134–87–21 | 60.6% | 61.2% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 119–42–11 | 73.9% | 63.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 64–34–12 | 65.3% | 60.9% |
| 1+ | 23–14–1 | 62.2% | 50.4% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W9 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected +0.5) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4) | 3.4 | 1.8 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Dalevon CampbellWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs GB, expected −0.4) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Matthew GoldenWR GB | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4) | 9.6 | 2.9 | −6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 10.8 | 13.9 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 6.4 | 0.0 | −6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyler LockettWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected −0.4) | 4.8 | 3.8 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Austin HooperTE NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 4.0 | 9.1 | +5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Alex EricksonWR NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected −0.4) | 6.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 10.0 | 7.3 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 5.6 | 7.3 | +1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | James ProcheWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected −0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mason KinseyWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 2.1 | 4.6 | +2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −1.1) | 10.3 | -1.4 | −11.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 12.1 | 3.7 | −8.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Van JeffersonWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected −0.4) | 3.8 | 8.1 | +4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 12.2 | 2.5 | −9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | 6.5 | +5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mike WoodsWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 6.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 1.9 | 3.8 | +1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kaden DavisWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected +0.5) | 7.6 | 0.0 | −7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Thomas OdukoyaTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected +0.5) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 10.4 | 13.5 | +3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 6.4 | 4.7 | −1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 0.9 | 1.4 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Julian HillTE MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | 1.1 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jack WestoverTE NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 2.0 | 3.3 | +1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jha'Quan JacksonWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected −0.4) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected +0.5) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected +0.5) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Drake MayeQB NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −1.1) | 17.8 | 23.1 | +5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Javon BakerWR NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 6.3 | 8.0 | +1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CLE, expected −0.4) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Malachi CorleyWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 0.8 | 3.7 | +2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Elic AyomanorWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected −0.4) | 10.7 | 4.9 | −5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Gage LarvadainWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs TEN, expected −0.4) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Gunnar HelmTE TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected +0.5) | 4.2 | 7.6 | +3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected +0.5) | 11.0 | 7.6 | −3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cam WardQB TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected −1.1) | 11.1 | 10.2 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dillon GabrielQB CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −1.1) | 11.6 | 5.8 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Chimere DikeWR TEN | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs NE, expected −0.4) | 5.2 | 16.9 | +11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Isaiah BondWR CLE | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs MIA, expected −0.4) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −1.1) | 18.2 | 9.3 | −8.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | DeAndre HopkinsWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 4.9 | 4.0 | −0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Davante AdamsWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 16.7 | 7.9 | −8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −1.1) | 18.1 | 22.3 | +4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 6.3 | 14.0 | +7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | David MooreWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cooper RushQB BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −1.1) | 11.0 | -1.1 | −12.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Anthony MillerWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 9.3 | 6.6 | −2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Hunter RenfrowWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 6.4 | 1.7 | −4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Parris CampbellWR DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dan ChisenaWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 8.8 | 1.8 | −7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 5.9 | 7.9 | +2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | George PickensWR DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4) | 18.5 | 31.8 | +13.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | James MitchellTE CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected +0.5) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4) | 9.3 | 1.8 | −7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 4.1 | 2.6 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 13.4 | 12.3 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected +0.5) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Luke SchoonmakerTE DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 2.9 | 1.8 | −1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Princeton FantTE DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected +0.5) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Brycen TremayneWR CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −0.4) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs CAR, expected −0.4) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs LAR, expected −0.4) | 12.8 | 8.6 | −4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected +0.5) | 2.5 | 1.7 | −0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs BAL, expected −0.4) | 23.4 | 4.8 | −18.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Fade (Wind 15+ mph vs DAL, expected −1.1) | 16.2 | 18.5 | +2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse