Category Week Planner · 2026-27
Best saves schedules, fantasy week 16 (Jan 11-17)
Saves. The opponent factor is the opponent's own shots on goal per game. Teams are ranked by effective games: games this week, each weighted by how many shots the opponent takes. WPG leads with 4.12.
Data updated:
Teams ranked for saves
Early season: teams have played about 2 games, so the opponent factors are mostly 2025-26 numbers. This season's games count for about 20% and the share grows every week.
| # | Team | GP | Effective | Per game | Opponents (factor) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Winnipeg Jets | 4 | 4.12 | 1.03 | @ TOR (0.98)@ OTT (1.03)vs ANA (1.02)@ EDM (1.08) |
| 2 | Vegas Golden Knights | 4 | 4.04 | 1.01 | @ WSH (0.98)@ TBL (1.00)@ FLA (0.97)@ CAR (1.09) |
| 3 | New York Rangers | 4 | 4.02 | 1.01 | @ LAK (1.05)@ ANA (1.02)vs BOS (0.98)vs DAL (0.96) |
| 4 | Dallas Stars | 4 | 3.96 | 0.99 | vs OTT (1.03)@ BOS (0.98)@ NYI (1.03)@ NYR (0.91) |
| 5 | Edmonton Oilers | 4 | 3.95 | 0.99 | vs TBL (1.00)vs SJS (0.98)vs CBJ (0.97)vs WPG (1.00) |
| 6 | Carolina Hurricanes | 4 | 3.93 | 0.98 | @ BOS (0.98)@ WSH (0.98)vs PHI (0.89)vs VGK (1.08) |
| 7 | Los Angeles Kings | 4 | 3.87 | 0.97 | vs NYR (0.91)vs STL (0.94)@ UTA (1.04)@ CGY (0.98) |
| 8 | Washington Capitals | 3 | 3.32 | 1.11 | vs VGK (1.08)vs CAR (1.09)vs COL (1.15) |
| 9 | Buffalo Sabres | 3 | 3.26 | 1.09 | vs NJD (1.15)vs COL (1.15)vs NSH (0.97) |
| 10 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 3 | 3.18 | 1.06 | @ EDM (1.08)vs VGK (1.08)vs OTT (1.03) |
| 11 | New York Islanders | 3 | 3.18 | 1.06 | vs PIT (1.07)vs DAL (0.96)@ NJD (1.15) |
| 12 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 3 | 3.16 | 1.05 | vs COL (1.15)@ NYI (1.03)@ TOR (0.98) |
| 13 | St. Louis Blues | 3 | 3.13 | 1.04 | @ LAK (1.05)@ ANA (1.02)vs MIN (1.05) |
| 14 | Florida Panthers | 3 | 3.08 | 1.03 | @ SEA (0.95)@ MIN (1.05)vs VGK (1.08) |
| 15 | Colorado Avalanche | 3 | 3.06 | 1.02 | @ PIT (1.07)@ BUF (1.00)@ WSH (0.98) |
| 16 | Philadelphia Flyers | 3 | 3.01 | 1.00 | @ NSH (0.97)@ CAR (1.09)vs MTL (0.95) |
| 17 | San Jose Sharks | 3 | 3.01 | 1.00 | @ EDM (1.08)@ CGY (0.98)@ SEA (0.95) |
| 18 | Chicago Blackhawks | 3 | 3.00 | 1.00 | vs UTA (1.04)@ TOR (0.98)vs DET (0.98) |
| 19 | Montreal Canadiens | 3 | 3.00 | 1.00 | vs NJD (1.15)@ NSH (0.97)@ PHI (0.89) |
| 20 | Calgary Flames | 3 | 3.00 | 1.00 | vs CBJ (0.97)vs SJS (0.98)vs LAK (1.05) |
| 21 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 3 | 2.99 | 1.00 | @ CGY (0.98)@ EDM (1.08)@ VAN (0.93) |
| 22 | New Jersey Devils | 3 | 2.98 | 0.99 | @ BUF (1.00)@ MTL (0.95)vs NYI (1.03) |
| 23 | Boston Bruins | 3 | 2.97 | 0.99 | vs CAR (1.09)vs DAL (0.96)@ NYR (0.91) |
| 24 | Ottawa Senators | 3 | 2.97 | 0.99 | @ DAL (0.96)vs WPG (1.00)@ TBL (1.00) |
| 25 | Detroit Red Wings | 3 | 2.94 | 0.98 | @ UTA (1.04)@ CHI (0.85)vs MIN (1.05) |
| 26 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 3 | 2.93 | 0.98 | vs WPG (1.00)vs CHI (0.85)vs PIT (1.07) |
| 27 | Utah Mammoth | 3 | 2.89 | 0.96 | @ CHI (0.85)vs DET (0.98)vs LAK (1.05) |
| 28 | Minnesota Wild | 3 | 2.89 | 0.96 | vs FLA (0.97)@ STL (0.94)@ DET (0.98) |
| 29 | Seattle Kraken | 3 | 2.88 | 0.96 | vs FLA (0.97)@ VAN (0.93)vs SJS (0.98) |
| 30 | Anaheim Ducks | 3 | 2.85 | 0.95 | vs NYR (0.91)vs STL (0.94)@ WPG (1.00) |
| 31 | Nashville Predators | 3 | 2.85 | 0.95 | vs PHI (0.89)vs MTL (0.95)@ BUF (1.00) |
| 32 | Vancouver Canucks | 2 | 1.92 | 0.96 | vs SEA (0.95)vs CBJ (0.97) |
Projected saves leaders, week 16
Projected totals for the week, weighted by expected starts. Off-night games in green.
| # | Player | GS | SV |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon BussiCAR · G | 3.12 | 77.9 |
| 2 | Logan ThompsonWSH · G | 2.6 | 76.4 |
| 3 | Andrei VasilevskiyTBL · G | 2.71 | 74.5 |
| 4 | Jake OettingerDAL · G | 2.92 | 71.6 |
| 5 | Jeremy SwaymanBOS · G | 2.7 | 70.3 |
| 6 | Dustin WolfCGY · G | 2.5 | 67.1 |
| 7 | Darcy KuemperLAK · G | 2.63 | 63.8 |
| 8 | Lukas DostalANA · G | 2.5 | 62.9 |
| 9 | Ukko-Pekka LuukkonenBUF · G | 2.3 | 62.9 |
| 10 | Spencer KnightCHI · G | 2.4 | 62.4 |
| 11 | Ilya SorokinNYI · G | 2.22 | 61.9 |
| 12 | Juuse SarosNSH · G | 2.4 | 60.6 |
| 13 | John GibsonDET · G | 2.32 | 58.5 |
| 14 | Arturs SilovsPIT · G | 2.21 | 58.2 |
| 15 | Igor ShesterkinNYR · G | 2.12 | 57.2 |
| 16 | Joey DaccordSEA · G | 2.3 | 56.3 |
| 17 | Carter HartVGK · G | 2.21 | 55.6 |
| 18 | Karel VejmelkaUTA · G | 2.32 | 55.1 |
| 19 | Stuart SkinnerWPG · G | 2.12 | 54.7 |
| 20 | Jacob MarkstromFLA · G | 2.1 | 53.9 |
| 21 | Mackenzie BlackwoodCOL · G | 2.0 | 53.6 |
| 22 | Sergei BobrovskyTOR · G | 2.01 | 51.0 |
| 23 | Jet GreavesCBJ · G | 1.91 | 50.8 |
| 24 | Linus UllmarkOTT · G | 1.9 | 48.9 |
| 25 | Joel HoferSTL · G | 1.71 | 47.0 |
| 26 | Jakub DobesMTL · G | 1.81 | 46.7 |
| 27 | Jake AllenNJD · G | 1.81 | 45.7 |
| 28 | Tristan JarryEDM · G | 1.84 | 44.8 |
| 29 | Yaroslav AskarovSJS · G | 1.51 | 42.4 |
| 30 | Joseph WollPHI · G | 1.51 | 41.1 |
| 31 | Daniel VladarPHI · G | 1.51 | 38.7 |
| 32 | Kevin LankinenVAN · G | 1.5 | 35.8 |
| 33 | Anton ForsbergLAK · G | 1.43 | 34.7 |
| 34 | Jesper WallstedtMIN · G | 1.31 | 33.8 |
| 35 | Jordan BinningtonSTL · G | 1.31 | 33.5 |
| 36 | Frederik AndersenEDM · G | 1.34 | 32.2 |
| 37 | Connor HellebuyckWPG · G | 1.22 | 30.6 |
| 38 | Casey DeSmithDAL · G | 1.12 | 28.9 |
| 39 | Adin HillVGK · G | 1.11 | 27.0 |
| 40 | Cam TalbotCBJ · G | 1.11 | 26.7 |
How it works
- Volume first. We count each team's games in the Monday-to-Sunday fantasy week and flag off-nights (fewer than 10 games) and back-to-backs. See games per week for the whole season.
- Opponents second, only where it helps. For each category we measure what every team allows per game (shots on goal against, hits and blocks its opponents record, faceoffs its opponents win, goals against). A factor of 1.10 means 10% more than the league average. We then tested out of sample whether these factors improve weekly forecasts over games times each team's own rate. They did, by a small margin, for shots on goal, hits, blocks, faceoffs won and goalie saves (where the factor is the opponent's own shots), so only those use them. Goals, assists, points, penalty minutes and goals against are volume only. The table below has the numbers.
- Each factor is shrunk toward average by how reliable that category is at the team level. We split last season's games into odd and even halves: when the halves agree (high split-half r), team differences are real and the factor is kept; when they do not, it is pulled toward 1. Early in the season this year's small sample is blended with last season, regressed by how well team factors carried over from one season to the next.
- Player rates come from rest-of-season projections: LineupExperts for goals, assists, points, PIM, shots, hits, blocks and goalie wins, saves and goals against, with our derived projection model filling power-play points, shorthanded points, plus/minus and faceoffs. Anything still missing (and shutouts) comes from our box scores, this season plus last season at half weight.
- Goalies: expected starts come from our goalie start model where it covers the week, otherwise from each goalie's share of projected starts, normalised so a team's goalies add up to one start per game. Wins get the Schedule Edge win-probability change for each game.
- The rater turns weekly totals into z-scores within the top 300 skaters and 64 goalies, then sums them with your weights. Punted categories count for nothing. SV% and GAA are scored by impact, so one start cannot top them.
For saves, last season's split-half r was 0.86 and the year-over-year r 0.62; factors are shrunk accordingly.
Frequently asked questions
Which teams have the best saves schedule in week 16?
WPG (4 games, 4.12 effective), VGK (4 games, 4.04 effective), NYR (4 games, 4.02 effective), DAL (4 games, 3.96 effective), EDM (4 games, 3.95 effective).
Which teams have the worst saves schedule?
VAN (2 games), NSH (3 games), ANA (3 games), SEA (3 games), MIN (3 games).
How reliable is the opponent effect for saves?
Last season the opponent measure (how many shots the opponent takes) had a split-half correlation of 0.86 across the 32 teams and a year-over-year correlation of 0.62. We shrink each team's factor by that reliability. Out of sample it trims weekly forecast error by only a couple of percent, so games played matter far more.
Should I stream for one category?
In head-to-head category leagues, streaming for a close category late in the week often wins it. Volume matters most: an extra game usually beats a better opponent. Use the full week planner to see every category at once and punt the ones you cannot win.