Category Week Planner · 2026-27
Best shots on goal schedules, fantasy week 4 (Oct 19-25)
Shots on goal. The opponent factor is shots on goal allowed per game. Teams are ranked by effective games: games this week, each weighted by how many shots on goal the opponent allows. ANA leads with 4.12.
Data updated:
Teams ranked for shots on goal
Early season: teams have played about 2 games, so the opponent factors are mostly 2025-26 numbers. This season's games count for about 20% and the share grows every week.
| # | Team | GP | Effective | Per game | Opponents (factor) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Anaheim Ducks | 4 | 4.12 | 1.03 | @ NYR (0.97)@ NYI (1.03)@ NJD (1.00)@ PHI (1.11) |
| 2 | Colorado Avalanche | 4 | 4.11 | 1.03 | @ PHI (1.11)@ NJD (1.00)vs TBL (0.95)@ NSH (1.05) |
| 3 | San Jose Sharks | 4 | 4.07 | 1.02 | @ TOR (1.06)@ MTL (1.02)@ OTT (0.95)@ BOS (1.05) |
| 4 | Minnesota Wild | 4 | 4.05 | 1.01 | @ EDM (0.93)@ CGY (1.05)@ SEA (1.01)@ VAN (1.07) |
| 5 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 4 | 3.98 | 1.00 | vs SJS (1.06)@ CBJ (1.03)vs NYR (0.97)@ EDM (0.93) |
| 6 | Montreal Canadiens | 3 | 3.15 | 1.05 | vs SJS (1.06)@ CHI (1.09)@ WPG (1.01) |
| 7 | Detroit Red Wings | 3 | 3.13 | 1.04 | @ SEA (1.01)@ VAN (1.07)@ CGY (1.05) |
| 8 | Dallas Stars | 3 | 3.09 | 1.03 | vs BOS (1.05)vs WPG (1.01)vs NYI (1.03) |
| 9 | Los Angeles Kings | 3 | 3.08 | 1.03 | @ WSH (1.04)@ NYI (1.03)@ NJD (1.00) |
| 10 | Boston Bruins | 3 | 3.06 | 1.02 | @ DAL (0.96)vs NSH (1.05)vs SJS (1.06) |
| 11 | New York Rangers | 3 | 3.03 | 1.01 | vs ANA (1.02)@ TOR (1.06)@ OTT (0.95) |
| 12 | Carolina Hurricanes | 3 | 3.02 | 1.01 | @ VAN (1.07)@ EDM (0.93)@ STL (1.03) |
| 13 | Vegas Golden Knights | 3 | 3.00 | 1.00 | vs TBL (0.95)@ STL (1.03)@ CBJ (1.03) |
| 14 | Winnipeg Jets | 3 | 3.00 | 1.00 | @ STL (1.03)@ DAL (0.96)vs MTL (1.02) |
| 15 | New Jersey Devils | 3 | 3.00 | 1.00 | vs COL (0.99)vs ANA (1.02)vs LAK (0.99) |
| 16 | Florida Panthers | 3 | 2.99 | 1.00 | @ OTT (0.95)@ PIT (0.95)@ CHI (1.09) |
| 17 | Nashville Predators | 3 | 2.99 | 1.00 | @ BOS (1.05)@ PIT (0.95)vs COL (0.99) |
| 18 | Ottawa Senators | 3 | 2.98 | 0.99 | vs FLA (0.96)vs SJS (1.06)vs NYR (0.97) |
| 19 | New York Islanders | 3 | 2.97 | 0.99 | vs ANA (1.02)vs LAK (0.99)@ DAL (0.96) |
| 20 | Philadelphia Flyers | 3 | 2.96 | 0.99 | vs COL (0.99)@ BUF (0.96)vs ANA (1.02) |
| 21 | Edmonton Oilers | 3 | 2.95 | 0.98 | vs MIN (1.00)vs CAR (0.89)vs TOR (1.06) |
| 22 | Utah Mammoth | 3 | 2.91 | 0.97 | vs PIT (0.95)@ SEA (1.01)vs TBL (0.95) |
| 23 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 3 | 2.90 | 0.97 | @ UTA (0.89)vs FLA (0.96)vs NSH (1.05) |
| 24 | Seattle Kraken | 3 | 2.86 | 0.95 | vs DET (0.97)vs UTA (0.89)vs MIN (1.00) |
| 25 | Vancouver Canucks | 3 | 2.86 | 0.95 | vs CAR (0.89)vs DET (0.97)vs MIN (1.00) |
| 26 | St. Louis Blues | 3 | 2.82 | 0.94 | vs WPG (1.01)vs VGK (0.92)vs CAR (0.89) |
| 27 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 3 | 2.79 | 0.93 | @ VGK (0.92)@ COL (0.99)@ UTA (0.89) |
| 28 | Buffalo Sabres | 2 | 2.15 | 1.07 | vs PHI (1.11)@ WSH (1.04) |
| 29 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 2 | 1.98 | 0.99 | vs TOR (1.06)vs VGK (0.92) |
| 30 | Chicago Blackhawks | 2 | 1.97 | 0.99 | vs MTL (1.02)vs FLA (0.96) |
| 31 | Calgary Flames | 2 | 1.97 | 0.98 | vs MIN (1.00)vs DET (0.97) |
| 32 | Washington Capitals | 2 | 1.95 | 0.97 | vs LAK (0.99)vs BUF (0.96) |
Projected shots on goal leaders, week 4
Projected totals for the week. Off-night games in green.
| # | Player | GP | SOG |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathan MacKinnonCOL · C | 43 | 18.4 |
| 2 | Auston MatthewsTOR · C | 41 | 15.8 |
| 3 | Cutter GauthierANA · LW | 41 | 15.5 |
| 4 | Macklin CelebriniSJS · C | 41 | 14.5 |
| 5 | Kirill KaprizovMIN · LW | 41 | 14.2 |
| 6 | Matthew BoldyMIN · RW | 41 | 13.4 |
| 7 | William NylanderTOR · RW | 41 | 12.1 |
| 8 | Leo CarlssonANA · C | 41 | 11.7 |
| 9 | Jack HughesNJD · C | 3 | 11.5 |
| 10 | Martin NecasCOL · RW | 43 | 11.5 |
| 11 | Joel Eriksson EkMIN · C | 41 | 11.4 |
| 12 | Cale MakarCOL · D | 43 | 11.4 |
| 13 | David PastrnakBOS · RW | 3 | 11.2 |
| 14 | Nazem KadriCOL · C | 43 | 11.2 |
| 15 | Kirill MarchenkoTOR · RW | 41 | 11.1 |
| 16 | Brady TkachukFLA · LW | 32 | 11.0 |
| 17 | Quinn HughesMIN · D | 41 | 10.7 |
| 18 | Jack EichelVGK · C | 3 | 10.4 |
| 19 | Jason RobertsonDAL · LW | 31 | 10.4 |
| 20 | Beckett SenneckeANA · RW | 41 | 10.4 |
| 21 | Troy TerryANA · RW | 41 | 10.3 |
| 22 | Alex DeBrincatDET · LW | 3 | 10.1 |
| 23 | Timo MeierNJD · LW | 3 | 9.9 |
| 24 | Connor McDavidEDM · C | 3 | 9.9 |
| 25 | Darren RaddyshTOR · D | 41 | 9.9 |
| 26 | Dylan GuentherUTA · RW | 31 | 9.9 |
| 27 | Will SmithSJS · RW | 41 | 9.8 |
| 28 | Cole CaufieldMTL · LW | 32 | 9.8 |
| 29 | John TavaresTOR · C | 41 | 9.8 |
| 30 | Kyle ConnorWPG · LW | 31 | 9.6 |
| 31 | Blake ColemanMIN · RW | 41 | 9.5 |
| 32 | Bo HorvatNYI · C | 31 | 9.5 |
| 33 | Dylan LarkinDET · C | 3 | 9.5 |
| 34 | Pavel DorofeyevNYR · RW | 31 | 9.3 |
| 35 | Adrian KempeLAK · RW | 3 | 9.3 |
| 36 | Seth JarvisCAR · RW | 3 | 9.3 |
| 37 | Ryan HartmanMIN · C | 41 | 9.1 |
| 38 | Artemi PanarinLAK · LW | 3 | 9.0 |
| 39 | Brock NelsonCOL · C | 43 | 9.0 |
| 40 | Gabriel LandeskogCOL · LW | 43 | 8.9 |
Matchup models plugged in
- Shot Prop Lab: matchup-adjusted shots on goalSOGComing soon
Until a model is live, its categories use the team opponent factors above (or volume only where those did not validate).
How it works
- Volume first. We count each team's games in the Monday-to-Sunday fantasy week and flag off-nights (fewer than 10 games) and back-to-backs. See games per week for the whole season.
- Opponents second, only where it helps. For each category we measure what every team allows per game (shots on goal against, hits and blocks its opponents record, faceoffs its opponents win, goals against). A factor of 1.10 means 10% more than the league average. We then tested out of sample whether these factors improve weekly forecasts over games times each team's own rate. They did, by a small margin, for shots on goal, hits, blocks, faceoffs won and goalie saves (where the factor is the opponent's own shots), so only those use them. Goals, assists, points, penalty minutes and goals against are volume only. The table below has the numbers.
- Each factor is shrunk toward average by how reliable that category is at the team level. We split last season's games into odd and even halves: when the halves agree (high split-half r), team differences are real and the factor is kept; when they do not, it is pulled toward 1. Early in the season this year's small sample is blended with last season, regressed by how well team factors carried over from one season to the next.
- Player rates come from rest-of-season projections: LineupExperts for goals, assists, points, PIM, shots, hits, blocks and goalie wins, saves and goals against, with our derived projection model filling power-play points, shorthanded points, plus/minus and faceoffs. Anything still missing (and shutouts) comes from our box scores, this season plus last season at half weight.
- Goalies: expected starts come from our goalie start model where it covers the week, otherwise from each goalie's share of projected starts, normalised so a team's goalies add up to one start per game. Wins get the Schedule Edge win-probability change for each game.
- The rater turns weekly totals into z-scores within the top 300 skaters and 64 goalies, then sums them with your weights. Punted categories count for nothing. SV% and GAA are scored by impact, so one start cannot top them.
For shots on goal, last season's split-half r was 0.84 and the year-over-year r 0.55; factors are shrunk accordingly.
Frequently asked questions
Which teams have the best shots on goal schedule in week 4?
ANA (4 games, 4.12 effective), COL (4 games, 4.11 effective), SJS (4 games, 4.07 effective), MIN (4 games, 4.05 effective), TOR (4 games, 3.98 effective).
Which teams have the worst shots on goal schedule?
WSH (2 games), CGY (2 games), CHI (2 games), CBJ (2 games), BUF (2 games).
How reliable is the opponent effect for shots on goal?
Last season the opponent measure (how many shots on goal the opponent allows) had a split-half correlation of 0.84 across the 32 teams and a year-over-year correlation of 0.55. We shrink each team's factor by that reliability. Out of sample it trims weekly forecast error by only a couple of percent, so games played matter far more.
Should I stream for one category?
In head-to-head category leagues, streaming for a close category late in the week often wins it. Volume matters most: an extra game usually beats a better opponent. Use the full week planner to see every category at once and punt the ones you cannot win.