Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W9Gus EdwardsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tyler ConklinTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)4.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Equanimeous St. BrownWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Justin WatsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)4.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Russell GageWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Braxton BerriosWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9DJ CharkWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Hayden HurstTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Dante PettisWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)4.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Malik TurnerWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Steven SimsWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Alexander MattisonRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)6.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Diontae JohnsonWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)4.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Kyler MurrayQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.6)19.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Trayveon WilliamsRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Trenton IrwinWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Joseph FortsonTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Alex BachmanWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9D'Ernest JohnsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Mitchell WilcoxTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tyler HuntleyQB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)20.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Mason KinseyWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)0.60.0−0.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Kristian WilkersonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Brandon AiyukWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)10.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)7.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)4.40.5−3.9voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jalen ReagorWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)1.00.0−1.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W9DJ TurnerWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)3.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Dez FitzpatrickWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Zach DavidsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Najee HarrisRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jake TongesTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)5.10.0−5.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Justyn RossWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Kevin Austin Jr.WR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Dameon PierceRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Montrell WashingtonWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Teagan QuitorianoTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Nick MuseTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Brandon JohnsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Kendric PryorWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Sincere McCormickRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Peyton HendershotTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Zamir WhiteRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Daniel BellingerTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)3.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Will MalloryTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Travis VokolekTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jason BrownleeWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Nikko RemigioWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Charlie JonesWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Justin ShorterWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Scott MatlockRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jalen BrooksWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Brayden WillisTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Ronnie BellWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Elijah CooksWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jared WayneWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Ben SimsTE MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Shedrick JacksonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9John ShenkerTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tank DellWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)10.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Chris CollierRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Baylor CuppTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jacob CowingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Spencer RattlerQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3)11.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Bub MeansWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jha'Quan JacksonWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Dylan LaubeRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Brenden RiceWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Xavier WeaverWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.30.0−1.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Ramel KeytonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Joshua CephusWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jermaine JacksonWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Bryce OliverWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jaylen JohnsonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Tip ReimanTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jermaine BurtonWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jared WileyTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Adonai MitchellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)4.01.7−2.3voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Carter RunyonTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)5.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jalen RoyalsWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Omarion HamptonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)15.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W9Jack BechWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Marcedes LewisTE DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Robert WoodsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)5.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Jordan MatthewsTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W8Nelson AgholorWR BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)4.4––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 11 of 30 · 2,909 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse