Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W4Ko KieftTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Thomas OdukoyaTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Elijah CooksWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Jared WayneWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Rakim JarrettWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Sean TuckerRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Tank DellWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Trey PalmerWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Keilan RobinsonRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Joshua CephusWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4David Martin-RobinsonTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0)2.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Jalen McMillanWR TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)8.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W4Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Chris ConleyWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Demarcus RobinsonWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)9.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Laquon TreadwellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Trent TaylorWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Russell GageWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Brandon PowellWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Foster MoreauTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Trishton JacksonWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Jauan JenningsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)11.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Brandon AiyukWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)11.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Feleipe FranksTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Avery WilliamsRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Brock PurdyQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6)17.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Jordan AddisonWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1)10.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Jacob CowingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Jase McClellanRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Dallin HolkerTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W3Moliki MatavaoTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)0.1––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 14 of 14 · 1,335 calls

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse