Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W13 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 2.7 | 1.6 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.9 | 1.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.4 | 2.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.5 | 1.5 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.9 | 0.4 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.0 | 2.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Ben SimsTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Brenton StrangeTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.5 | 2.4 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.9 | 1.2 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 11.4 | 9.3 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Cam GrandyTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 18.0 | 12.2 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.6 | 0.4 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.3 | 4.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 6.1 | 4.5 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Rome OdunzeWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 10.3 | 4.5 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 3.4 | 2.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Adam ThielenWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.6 | 8.7 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 13.5 | 12.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 17.0 | 12.4 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.7 | -0.2 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 5.0 | 0.0 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | MyCole PruittTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 10.0 | 9.4 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 3.4 | 0.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 3.1 | 1.7 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 15.9 | 7.8 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 17.1 | 9.9 | −7.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 10.2 | 3.9 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Joe MixonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 18.5 | 9.5 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 11.0 | 8.7 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 7.4 | 4.0 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 23.7 | 22.6 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.4 | 1.8 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Diontae JohnsonWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 6.6 | 2.4 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Darius SlaytonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 9.2 | 0.0 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.4 | 3.1 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dan ChisenaWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 15.0 | 8.9 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 13.3 | 3.5 | −9.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 11.1 | 9.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan LoveQB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.5 | 14.7 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 12.9 | 7.4 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Bo MeltonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.9 | 0.5 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 9.0 | 3.7 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.8 | 2.3 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 1.1 | 0.3 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 8.6 | 4.9 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 10.2 | 8.4 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 10.9 | 9.7 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Christian WatsonWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 8.6 | 0.4 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Dontayvion WicksWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 6.1 | 3.5 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Josh WhyleTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 7.7 | 1.6 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ronnie BellWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Emari DemercadoRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.1 | 1.4 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.8 | 4.1 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jalin HyattWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 12.4 | 5.7 | −6.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Elijah HigginsTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 14.8 | 11.2 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jayden ReedWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 11.0 | 5.6 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 16.2 | 15.7 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Anthony RichardsonQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 17.1 | 13.0 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 14.4 | 12.4 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Xavier LegetteWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 10.8 | 9.6 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | 1.8 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 14.0 | 13.5 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 5.8 | 5.1 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 5.5 | 2.0 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.5 | 1.7 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Trey BensonRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.0 | 1.8 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 15.5 | 6.3 | −9.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 14.2 | 4.9 | −9.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.8 | 7.5 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyler LockettWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 11.5 | 3.9 | −7.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 16.0 | 10.5 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Johnny MundtTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.8 | 2.3 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 18.1 | 14.6 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.5 | 4.7 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Noah BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 8.8 | 1.4 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse