Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W7 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | AJ DillonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 6.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 3.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.1 | 7.7 | +3.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Trey SermonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 12.0 | 5.9 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Javonte WilliamsRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 12.4 | 26.1 | +13.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyler BadieRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyler GoodsonRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.5 | 11.1 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Bam KnightRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 7.5 | 0.4 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 11.4 | 8.9 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brian RobinsonRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.0 | 13.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 20.4 | 19.6 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 16.4 | 23.3 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Evan HullRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.8 | 0.5 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaleel McLaughlinRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 6.1 | 3.5 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.2 | 1.1 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | SaRodorick Thompson Jr.RB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 9.7 | 10.5 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 16.4 | 32.0 | +15.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 11.0 | 1.9 | −9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.7 | 1.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Audric EstiméRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.3 | 0.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Blake WatsonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.6 | 1.1 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.7 | 1.5 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | MarShawn LloydRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 3.0 | 3.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.7 | 10.6 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Keith SmithRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 7.7 | 1.7 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 16.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Boston ScottRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Nick BawdenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 5.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rashaad PennyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 18.6 | 7.4 | −11.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Devine OzigboRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Miles SandersRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 6.8 | 2.3 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 10.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 16.8 | 17.8 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Trayveon WilliamsRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.1 | 2.1 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.8 | 21.0 | +8.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jakob JohnsonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.3 | 1.3 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.5 | 3.8 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rico DowdleRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 11.9 | 10.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 18.6 | 18.2 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Zack MossRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.9 | 0.5 | −15.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Anthony McFarlandRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Deon JacksonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 15.8 | 15.3 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Elijah MitchellRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 4.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Gary BrightwellRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kene NwangwuRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chris EvansRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Najee HarrisRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 14.1 | 20.2 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenny GainwellRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 4.8 | 2.3 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Avery WilliamsRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bam KnightRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 7.2 | 4.8 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Rachaad WhiteRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 14.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyler AllgeierRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.0 | 19.8 | +11.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.8 | 1.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jashaun CorbinRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jordan MasonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 14.3 | 9.2 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 1.0 | 0.2 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Aaron ShampklinRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.4 | -0.2 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.2 | 0.5 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Velus Jones Jr.RB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Breece HallRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 15.1 | 21.9 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 14.8 | 20.9 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Israel AbanikandaRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 3.7 | 1.3 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ben VanSumerenRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 17.5 | 25.5 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 8.6 | 14.4 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse