Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W11 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.1 | 6.3 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.0 | 0.1 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.9 | 4.1 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 4.3 | 17.6 | +13.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 6.5 | 9.5 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 18.1 | 8.6 | −9.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zamir WhiteRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.1 | 0.9 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 14.9 | 21.8 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL) | 3.1 | 6.2 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 7.2 | 6.5 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 13.8 | 19.3 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Deuce VaughnRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | 2.7 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.3 | 0.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter LuepkeRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | John ShenkerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 4.0 | 13.3 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.7 | 9.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 8.5 | 7.7 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 4.1 | 0.0 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael MayerTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.9 | 1.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 16.0 | 10.9 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chris CollierRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 12.4 | 31.3 | +18.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.6 | 2.1 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dylan LaubeRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.0 | 3.9 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 7.8 | 10.6 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 18.1 | 28.8 | +10.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.4 | 3.8 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 6.0 | 9.5 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.1 | 4.8 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 18.1 | 13.4 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 16.7 | 4.0 | −12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 16.5 | 9.7 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Julio JonesWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 10.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 16.7 | 10.2 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 13.3 | 20.4 | +7.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Raheem MostertRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 8.9 | 5.4 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Eric TomlinsonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.1 | 2.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.4 | 0.0 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Stephen AndersonTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 16.8 | 7.8 | −9.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 15.4 | 14.7 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Anthony FirkserTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | John RossWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 8.9 | 7.5 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 17.5 | 16.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jeff WilsonRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 7.8 | 8.0 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jason CabindaRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Gus EdwardsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.6 | 5.5 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 6.8 | 1.8 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ian ThomasTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.0 | 1.3 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 10.1 | 6.6 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.3 | 1.6 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Hayden HurstTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Royce FreemanRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.3 | 8.9 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse