Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W11 | Steven SimsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 12.5 | 8.8 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Hunter RenfrowWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Olamide ZaccheausWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 4.3 | 2.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | David SillsWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 6.6 | 15.2 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Andy IsabellaWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 13.6 | 14.0 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 13.0 | 2.0 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | James ProcheWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Chase ClaypoolWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | K.J. OsbornWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 4.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | CeeDee LambWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 14.6 | 18.6 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 12.7 | 26.2 | +13.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.5 | 5.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.2 | 9.4 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 9.9 | 5.7 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.8 | 1.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jaelon DardenWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Kadarius ToneyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.0 | -0.7 | −3.7 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Michael BandyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Elijah MooreWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 9.8 | 18.6 | +8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | David BellWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 15.0 | 15.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen VirgilWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Johnny Johnson IIIWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 4.1 | 6.3 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.9 | 4.1 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 4.3 | 17.6 | +13.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Erik EzukanmaWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Grant DuBoseWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 14.9 | 21.8 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 7.2 | 6.5 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.9 | 0.0 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen BrooksWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jalen CropperWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Brycen TremayneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 4.0 | 13.3 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.7 | 9.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 8.5 | 7.7 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 4.1 | 0.0 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Luke McCaffreyWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.6 | 2.1 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.0 | 3.9 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 7.8 | 10.6 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 6.0 | 9.5 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.1 | 4.8 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Julio JonesWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Damiere ByrdWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.1 | 2.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kalif RaymondWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 5.4 | 0.0 | −5.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tim PatrickWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | John RossWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chris Godwin Jr.WR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 16.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 10.1 | 6.6 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Cody ThompsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Parris CampbellWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 14.8 | 15.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Quez WatkinsWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 15.7 | 14.6 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.5 | 3.4 | −10.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 18.7 | 18.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 13.6 | 17.7 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 9.7 | 8.3 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.9 | 3.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.9 | 3.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.5 | 2.1 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.3 | 7.5 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.5 | 2.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 10.5 | 7.6 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.4 | 4.5 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.8 | 22.1 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.2 | 1.2 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 8.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DeVante ParkerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | DeAndre CarterWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse