Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W10 | Devine OzigboRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 8.2 | 5.5 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Donald ParhamTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyree JacksonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tom KennedyWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Parris CampbellWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darrell HendersonRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | A.J. BrownWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 14.8 | 15.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.8 | 12.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Daniel JonesQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 17.3 | 12.2 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jakob JohnsonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Salvon AhmedRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Lawrence CagerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | J.K. DobbinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 17.0 | 8.5 | −8.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Marquez CallawayWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Donovan Peoples-JonesWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Quez WatkinsWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 16.4 | 7.5 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 7.0 | 3.3 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 15.7 | 14.6 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 16.5 | 19.8 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 19.7 | 29.7 | +9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Brycen HopkinsTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Chris BlairWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Deon JacksonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.6 | 1.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 3.9 | 3.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Hunter KampmoyerTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Feleipe FranksTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.5 | 3.4 | −10.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 18.7 | 18.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Hunter LongTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tre' McKittyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Britain CoveyWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 13.6 | 17.7 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 9.7 | 8.3 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Greg DulcichTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jashaun CorbinRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Stone SmarttTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Peyton HendershotTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.9 | 1.6 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Hassan HaskinsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.1 | 6.4 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tucker FiskTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.9 | 3.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jeremy RuckertTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.6 | 3.7 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 20.5 | 23.8 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 19.2 | 11.2 | −8.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Isaiah SpillerRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Eric GrayRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zack KuntzTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Scott MatlockRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Antoine GreenWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Brayden WillisTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Rakim JarrettWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 3.9 | 3.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.5 | 2.1 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Roschon JohnsonRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 6.2 | 1.1 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 17.0 | 10.2 | −6.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Trey PalmerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.7 | 8.4 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Zach EvansRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 18.9 | 12.8 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 10.4 | 12.0 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Dante MillerRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Johnny WilsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.3 | 7.5 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 6.9 | 8.8 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 13.2 | 15.4 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Casey WashingtonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | 2.5 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Ainias SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.5 | 2.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 5.4 | 7.7 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 7.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jaylen WrightRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.3 | 0.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 16.0 | 6.3 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 15.3 | 20.3 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 15.4 | 17.9 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jimmy GrahamTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 11.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Randall CobbWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 18.2 | 17.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 10.5 | 7.6 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Latavius MurrayRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 5.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Damien WilliamsRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.4 | 4.5 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Derek CarrQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.9 | 13.4 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse