Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W7 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 10.3 | -1.4 | −11.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.6) | 20.0 | 27.9 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mac JonesQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 16.8 | 5.2 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 13.5 | 10.5 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 22.4 | 17.7 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Cam WardQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3) | 11.1 | 10.2 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3) | 14.3 | 17.5 | +3.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.3) | 18.2 | 9.3 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jacoby BrissettQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.8) | 12.0 | 20.7 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.6) | 21.1 | 31.5 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3) | 19.8 | 19.6 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 21.1 | 15.4 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 16.5 | 20.0 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.8) | 14.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 6.6 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 16.6 | 19.2 | +2.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Mac JonesQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 11.2 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 16.2 | 18.5 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3) | 16.5 | 11.1 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 19.1 | 13.4 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Dillon GabrielQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 9.7 | 8.8 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Geno SmithQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.6) | 13.8 | 5.9 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 16.4 | 28.3 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cooper RushQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 12.2 | 1.2 | −11.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.6) | 16.2 | 26.7 | +10.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3) | 22.3 | 19.4 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | 27.6 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jake BrowningQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3) | 12.6 | 19.1 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 19.2 | 15.3 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected −0.3) | 18.8 | 16.7 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.3) | 15.2 | 22.7 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 19.4 | 14.6 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Justin FieldsQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.3) | 20.0 | 25.9 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected −0.8) | 15.9 | 28.8 | +12.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cam WardQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 11.6 | 8.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3) | 17.6 | 27.4 | +9.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 16.1 | 18.9 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Sam DarnoldQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 15.3 | 16.1 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 16.6 | 16.1 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Trevor LawrenceQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected −0.3) | 14.7 | 11.7 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6) | 16.4 | 18.4 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3) | 15.2 | 18.7 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Cam WardQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.3) | 10.8 | 4.5 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.3) | 17.5 | 15.8 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Mac JonesQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 16.4 | 13.3 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Brock PurdyQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.6) | 17.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3) | 12.7 | 11.7 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 14.8 | 25.0 | +10.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joe FlaccoQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 14.1 | 14.6 | +0.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 16.3 | 26.3 | +10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jacoby BrissettQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 10.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 11.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 12.4 | 3.3 | −9.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 25.8 | 23.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 16.4 | 0.0 | −16.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 17.3 | 27.9 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Drew LockQB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 11.2 | 7.8 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Tyler HuntleyQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 13.4 | 8.7 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 20.7 | 13.0 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Aidan O'ConnellQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 12.0 | 15.9 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 11.3 | 6.0 | −5.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 10.4 | 14.7 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 19.8 | 33.5 | +13.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 12.4 | 0.0 | −12.4 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jayden DanielsQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 22.5 | 4.2 | −18.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 16.4 | 25.0 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 12.4 | 10.9 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 12.1 | 0.5 | −11.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Andy DaltonQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 12.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 14.2 | 17.7 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jameis WinstonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 9.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 18.8 | 25.8 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 17.3 | 26.0 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mason RudolphQB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 12.3 | 12.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 22.5 | 29.4 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 20.5 | 34.6 | +14.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 21.9 | 23.0 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 18.5 | 24.8 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 15.6 | 16.0 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 17.4 | 24.4 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 21.6 | 37.0 | +15.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mac JonesQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 10.8 | 17.2 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny PickettQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.2 | 16.0 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 10.4 | 3.8 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 13.8 | 16.9 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 11.5 | 13.3 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 12.6 | 11.2 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Aaron RodgersQB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 15.7 | 12.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 16.4 | 6.0 | −10.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kirk CousinsQB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 14.3 | 21.4 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dak PrescottQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 16.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cooper RushQB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 15.5 | 15.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 22.3 | 20.5 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 25.0 | 11.2 | −13.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 18.8 | 20.4 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 16.4 | 22.2 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 13.8 | 16.1 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 9.6 | 4.9 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 14.8 | 21.0 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse