Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W7 | Robbie ChosenWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | 7.6 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 4.6 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 6.5 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Xavier SmithWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 3.5 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 6.3 | 8.0 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 15.0 | 15.7 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tez JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 6.1 | 15.8 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 7.5 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tre HarrisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 3.5 | 4.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Kendrick BourneWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 9.9 | 19.2 | +9.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 9.6 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 7.4 | 8.7 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 2.9 | 12.9 | +10.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 4.2 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 4.0 | 9.9 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 16.5 | 19.5 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 12.2 | 20.5 | +8.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Josh PalmerWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 8.0 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 19.1 | 30.2 | +11.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.4) | 6.4 | 8.4 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | 5.7 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 3.3 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 2.2 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 4.3 | 5.3 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 15.7 | 23.0 | +7.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Gage LarvadainWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 4.2 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 1.7 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tyler LockettWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 7.6 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Sterling ShepardWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 7.0 | 11.9 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 10.6 | +5.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | 11.9 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 8.7 | 10.4 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Calvin RidleyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 9.5 | 18.1 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 7.5 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 1.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 15.3 | 16.0 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 11.5 | 23.0 | +11.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 16.6 | 29.0 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Dareke YoungWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 4.6 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 10.2 | 11.0 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 17.6 | 27.2 | +9.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 9.8 | 11.1 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 3.9 | 16.8 | +12.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | 13.2 | +9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | 18.4 | +15.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 14.9 | 31.3 | +16.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 7.2 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | 9.8 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tez JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 9.9 | +7.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tory HortonWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 12.9 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Jack BechWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | 5.7 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 7.9 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 15.8 | +11.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 1.3 | 2.7 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 24.6 | 36.0 | +11.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 12.9 | 18.6 | +5.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Emeka EgbukaWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 16.7 | 20.1 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 9.4 | +6.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Kendrick BourneWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 5.0 | 7.8 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 12.7 | 19.3 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Jalen NailorWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 6.0 | 6.7 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 9.1 | 10.7 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Skyy MooreWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 2.0 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W3 | Ricky PearsallWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 10.9 | 19.7 | +8.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 15.5 | 20.8 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Curtis SamuelWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 3.5 | 12.2 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.4 | 8.6 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 16.7 | 20.8 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ray-Ray McCloudWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 9.4 | 10.6 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 2.8 | 5.2 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.4 | 16.1 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.0 | 3.4 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dante PettisWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 4.7 | 9.6 | +4.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 13.8 | 27.3 | +13.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 4.5 | 21.4 | +16.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 13.0 | 14.3 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 16.5 | 20.2 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 10.1 | 18.6 | +8.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 17.7 | 40.7 | +23.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jalen TolbertWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 6.8 | 13.8 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | KaVontae TurpinWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 4.5 | 8.8 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 9.7 | 14.3 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 9.0 | 24.7 | +15.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.6 | 7.4 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 7.4 | 22.1 | +14.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Jonathan MingoWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 2.7 | 4.4 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Malik NabersWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI) | 15.8 | 17.4 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Ryan FlournoyWR DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 2.0 | 3.4 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 8.3 | 15.0 | +6.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 12.7 | 17.3 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.9 | 2.2 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mike EvansWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 19.4 | 29.7 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.0 | 3.1 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 6.9 | 14.6 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.8 | 3.8 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.2 | 2.9 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 3.4 | 14.0 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.7 | 4.7 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 0.9 | 1.9 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dante PettisWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 4.8 | 5.7 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse