Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W18Jalen CropperWR DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jalin HyattWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4)4.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tucker KraftTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)5.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Roschon JohnsonRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)2.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)2.80.0−2.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Chris CollierRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Kendall MiltonRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18George HolaniRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Carson SteeleRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.3)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Malik NabersWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4)17.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Luke McCaffreyWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Keilan RobinsonRB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tanner McLachlanTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Dylan LaubeRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jaheim BellTE NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Ramel KeytonWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Blake WatsonRB DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.4)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jacob KibodiRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Cam GrandyTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jordan WhittingtonWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Devin CulpTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Terrell JenningsRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Braelon AllenRB NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.7)5.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Anthony GouldWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)9.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Amar JohnsonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Nick KallerupTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jacardia WrightRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jaylin LaneWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tahj BrooksRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Thomas Fidone IITE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Ja'Corey BrooksWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Jacoby JonesWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.4)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Coleman OwenWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Josh WilliamsRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Beaux CollinsWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.4)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Nate CarterRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.3)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Dalevon CampbellWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Tory HortonWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)4.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Ricky White IIIWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Cam SkatteboRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)10.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Elijah ArroyoTE SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W18Quinshon JudkinsRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)10.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Zach ErtzTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)8.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Davante AdamsWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)14.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jamison CrowderWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17C.J. UzomahTE PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Alex EricksonWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Robbie ChosenWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Laquon TreadwellWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)0.40.0−0.4voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)8.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ezekiel ElliottRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17George KittleTE SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)13.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Mike WilliamsWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17James ConnerRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)11.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jamal AgnewWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Noah BrownWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)4.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Austin EkelerRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)10.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Robert TonyanTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)0.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Dare OgunbowaleRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)2.20.0−2.2voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Gerald EverettTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Joe MixonRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)10.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17D'Onta ForemanRB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)3.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17River CracraftWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Ross DwelleyTE DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jordan AkinsTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Brandon PowellWR MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Chase EdmondsRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.80.0−1.8voidBacktest ·
2025 W17DJ CharkWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17KhaDarel HodgeWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Irv SmithTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0)0.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Justice HillRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Foster MoreauTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Stephen CarlsonTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Khari BlasingameRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Olamide ZaccheausWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)9.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Miles SandersRB DALBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)6.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Myles GaskinRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17David SillsWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)4.76.7+2.0voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Travis HomerRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17DK MetcalfWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)12.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Jakob JohnsonRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17JaMycal HastyRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tony JonesRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Patrick TaylorRB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)3.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Lawrence CagerTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)0.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Collin JohnsonWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)2.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17AJ DillonRB PHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Antonio GibsonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)4.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17K.J. OsbornWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)1.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Joshua KelleyRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Cam AkersRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)2.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Albert OkwuegbunamTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Chris BlairWR ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1)0.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Tim JonesWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.3)1.0––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Kenny YeboahTE NYJBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W17Elijah MitchellRB KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·

NewerPage 3 of 30 · 2,909 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse