Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W16Chris OlaveWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)16.936.8+19.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Rachaad WhiteRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)7.58.0+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Andrew OgletreeTE INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0)0.92.1+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Alec PierceWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)11.624.6+13.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Brock PurdyQB SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3)18.830.9+12.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)2.02.8+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Skyy MooreWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.53.3+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Quentin JohnstonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)8.920.4+11.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)4.913.9+9.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Tyrell ShaversWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.13.1+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Emanuel WilsonRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)6.78.2+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Brenton StrangeTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.0)7.514.9+7.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Sean TuckerRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.4)4.36.3+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Josh DownsWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)8.911.8+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)4.36.8+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.6)14.217.6+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)10.614.3+3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Xavier WeaverWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.43.9+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Mason TiptonWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.08.1+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jaylen WrightRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.3)3.612.3+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Ladd McConkeyWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)13.214.3+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected −0.3)17.221.0+3.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Ashton JeantyRB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)10.631.8+21.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Tetairoa McMillanWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)12.619.3+6.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Elic AyomanorWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)7.38.8+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.3)10.612.3+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Omarion HamptonRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)10.416.5+6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Isaac TeSlaaWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)4.015.2+11.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected −0.3)11.018.0+7.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Chimere DikeWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)7.413.0+5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Tre HarrisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)4.89.4+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Tyler ShoughQB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)16.317.1+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Aaron RodgersQB PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)15.117.0+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Kirk CousinsQB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected −0.3)10.426.9+16.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Darren WallerTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)5.225.6+20.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)3.38.9+5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)10.121.6+11.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15DJ MooreWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)10.722.9+12.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tony PollardRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)10.018.2+8.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Darius SlaytonWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)7.79.3+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Ty JohnsonRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)5.05.8+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15DK MetcalfWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)13.414.5+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Terry McLaurinWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)13.015.9+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)6.218.7+12.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tua TagovailoaQB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)11.716.2+4.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Colby ParkinsonTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)8.924.5+15.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)15.022.6+7.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Charlie WoernerTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)1.33.2+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15John BatesTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)1.72.9+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jack StollTE NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0)1.01.7+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Kyle PittsTE ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)10.145.6+35.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Trevor LawrenceQB JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3)18.744.3+25.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15James CookRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1)18.231.1+12.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)5.06.6+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Rashid ShaheedWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)8.512.1+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tyquan ThorntonWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)4.36.7+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)14.716.4+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Bijan RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)19.229.5+10.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)7.38.3+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Julian HillTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)3.04.5+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W15De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)18.018.7+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Davis AllenTE LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)3.94.6+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Puka NacuaWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)25.327.9+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.3)14.615.4+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15C.J. StroudQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected −0.3)18.523.4+4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Cade StoverTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0)2.95.2+2.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Audric EstiméRB NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3)2.38.0+5.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Drake MayeQB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.3)17.620.5+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)11.517.1+5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Ben SinnottTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)0.74.6+3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Caleb WilliamsQB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected −0.3)16.619.0+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jaylin LaneWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.66.0+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.48.6+7.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jacory Croskey-MerrittRB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)8.815.6+6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3)17.922.1+4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Tre HarrisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.37.9+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)10.530.1+19.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Luther Burden IIIWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)6.814.4+7.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Cooper KuppWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)8.711.5+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Lamar JacksonQB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3)18.421.1+2.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Mike GesickiTE CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0)5.820.6+14.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Sam DarnoldQB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)16.022.3+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Tony PollardRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)8.728.1+19.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)16.417.2+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Jordan LoveQB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.3)17.019.3+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Jaylen WaddleWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)12.718.1+5.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Bo MeltonWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)2.811.5+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Greg DulcichTE MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0)4.37.1+2.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14John FitzPatrickTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)1.53.4+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Rashid ShaheedWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)7.516.7+9.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Isaiah LikelyTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)6.212.5+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)2.12.9+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Christian WatsonWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)12.624.9+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)19.428.1+8.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)2.03.1+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Chase BrownRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)17.318.5+1.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Tyjae SpearsRB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)6.26.7+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Luke MusgraveTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)3.24.2+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Jayden ReedWR GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)5.49.3+3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W14Kimani VidalRB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1)10.911.4+0.5✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 3 of 15 · 1,452 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse