Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W6 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 8.9 | 4.5 | −4.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dante MillerRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 4.5 | 9.9 | +5.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 16.9 | 18.5 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaac GuerendoRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.8 | 9.9 | +8.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.1 | 0.5 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 8.2 | 22.7 | +14.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jha'Quan JacksonWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Devaughn VeleWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 7.6 | 11.8 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brevyn Spann-FordTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 1.7 | 0.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 12.2 | 20.7 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Braelon AllenRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 6.3 | 0.8 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Isaiah DavisRB NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Erick AllTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 4.5 | 3.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Anthony GouldWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 4.8 | 11.6 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 6.6 | 2.9 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 14.3 | 5.7 | −8.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 9.5 | 5.6 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Ja'Lynn PolkWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 7.5 | 1.4 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Malachi CorleyWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Marcedes LewisTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 13.7 | 12.4 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Brandon BoldenRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 8.2 | 3.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 10.8 | 16.0 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Willie SneadWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Damien WilliamsRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Logan ThomasTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 6.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jerick McKinnonRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris ManhertzTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Nelson AgholorWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 5.3 | 1.4 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Michael BurtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.2 | 1.5 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Darren WallerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 6.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Blake BellTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ameer AbdullahRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 4.4 | 14.1 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chris ConleyWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Melvin GordonRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyler KroftTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.4 | 1.9 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dwayne WashingtonRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 18.0 | 16.6 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Demarcus RobinsonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.9 | 11.8 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jonathan WilliamsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Ezekiel ElliottRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 10.1 | 1.7 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 7.1 | 5.2 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jacoby BrissettQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 10.6 | 7.4 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 2.0 | 11.7 | +9.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 18.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Alex ArmahRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Matt BreidaRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.4 | 3.4 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 13.6 | 14.0 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jamal AgnewWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 3.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Austin EkelerRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 10.3 | 11.7 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dare OgunbowaleRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 4.4 | 14.7 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jonnu SmithTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 3.9 | 11.1 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dalvin CookRB DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 2.2 | 4.2 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 8.8 | 18.7 | +9.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jeremy McNicholsRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 3.4 | 10.4 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 7.9 | 7.4 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | David WellsTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Chase EdmondsRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 3.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 13.0 | 12.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 20.7 | 33.4 | +12.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Durham SmytheTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Alexander MattisonRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 12.2 | 10.1 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 9.5 | 3.5 | −6.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Khari BlasingameRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Deonte HartyWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Zach GentryTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Devin SingletaryRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 11.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Qadree OllisonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Scott MillerWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tyree JacksonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Matt SokolTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jesper HorstedTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Travis HomerRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 3.5 | 3.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Miles BoykinWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Derrick GoreRB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 15.6 | 3.0 | −12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jakob JohnsonRB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.4 | 0.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Jonathan WardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 1.8 | 0.9 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse