Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W13 | JaMycal HastyRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | AJ DillonRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DeeJay DallasRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 11.0 | 11.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 9.8 | 6.5 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 16.0 | 5.1 | −10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Trey SermonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 12.8 | 12.4 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 3.4 | 4.7 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ronnie RiversRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyrion Davis-PriceRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 17.5 | 13.2 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Evan HullRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 1.5 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kendre MillerRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 7.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tank BigsbyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 4.1 | 0.0 | −4.1 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan MimsRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 7.5 | 8.4 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 23.9 | 11.6 | −12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Sione VakiRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Audric EstiméRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Keilan RobinsonRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jacob KibodiRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Cody SchraderRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Blake CorumRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 14.1 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Will ShipleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | 2.1 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kaleb JohnsonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 0.3 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dylan SampsonRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 2.3 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devin NealRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 13.2 | 9.9 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Raheim SandersRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | 8.9 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | TreVeyon HendersonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 10.8 | 11.6 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 9.5 | 15.9 | +6.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Cordarrelle PattersonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 2.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Derrick HenryRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 19.4 | 22.8 | +3.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Christian McCaffreyRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 24.7 | 27.2 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 8.7 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Samaje PerineRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 13.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 12.1 | 20.0 | +7.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mike BooneRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 9.4 | 8.1 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 12.5 | 6.7 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 16.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tony JonesRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Patrick TaylorRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 13.0 | 11.4 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 16.1 | 1.9 | −14.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Darrynton EvansRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 3.7 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Joshua KelleyRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Cam AkersRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DeeJay DallasRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ke'Shawn VaughnRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 7.7 | 8.3 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Elijah MitchellRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jermar JeffersonRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 9.2 | 18.2 | +9.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 8.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 17.1 | 20.6 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Trey SermonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 11.2 | 13.2 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 13.2 | 12.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dameon PierceRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ty ChandlerRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brittain BrownRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 6.1 | 4.2 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.3 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Velus Jones Jr.RB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brian RobinsonRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 4.8 | 5.4 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 10.8 | 13.1 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Zavier ScottRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | 2.9 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Brady RussellRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 16.7 | 15.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kenny McIntoshRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 3.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 8.0 | 26.5 | +18.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jacob SaylorsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyjae SpearsRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 6.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 24.0 | 55.4 | +31.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 12.6 | 9.5 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kendall MiltonRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | George HolaniRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Carson SteeleRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 3.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse