Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W16Kevin Austin Jr.WR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.63.8+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Chris OlaveWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)16.936.8+19.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jameson WilliamsWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)17.212.0−5.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Khalil ShakirWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)9.97.4−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jalen VirgilWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Alec PierceWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)11.624.6+13.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Calvin Austin IIIWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)6.81.8−5.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Skyy MooreWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.53.3+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Quentin JohnstonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)8.920.4+11.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Michael WilsonWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)16.313.2−3.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jalen BrooksWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.50.0−5.5voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Tyrell ShaversWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.13.1+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Brycen TremayneWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Malik CunninghamWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Josh DownsWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)8.911.8+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Xavier LegetteWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)7.92.2−5.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Jacob CowingWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Devaughn VeleWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)8.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Jalen CokerWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)7.87.7−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Xavier WeaverWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)2.43.9+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Mason TiptonWR NOBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)3.08.1+5.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Roman WilsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)3.4––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)11.42.4−9.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W16Keon ColemanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)7.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Ladd McConkeyWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)13.214.3+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Tetairoa McMillanWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)12.619.3+6.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Elic AyomanorWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)7.38.8+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Jordan WatkinsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)2.20.0−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W16KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)2.22.0−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)2.12.5+0.4pushBacktest ·
2025 W16Dominic LovettWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)0.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Xavier RestrepoWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Dalevon CampbellWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3)1.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W16Isaac TeSlaaWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)4.015.2+11.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Chimere DikeWR TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)7.413.0+5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W16Tre HarrisWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1)4.89.4+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Adam ThielenWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.71.7−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Keenan AllenWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)9.78.6−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Davante AdamsWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)16.311.1−5.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Stefon DiggsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)11.05.6−5.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W15DeAndre CarterWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jamison CrowderWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)2.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Chris MooreWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Alex EricksonWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Robbie ChosenWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tyreek HillWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)9.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tim PatrickWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)4.40.0−4.4❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Mike WilliamsWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Mack HollinsWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)8.38.1−0.2pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Noah BrownWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)6.63.8−2.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W15JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)4.30.0−4.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Cooper KuppWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)9.59.6+0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W15River CracraftWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)3.38.9+5.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Ray-Ray McCloudWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.60.0−1.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15DJ CharkWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)2.1––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15DJ MooreWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)10.722.9+12.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Jakobi MeyersWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)12.212.1−0.1pushBacktest ·
2025 W15Olamide ZaccheausWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)7.10.0−7.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Scott MillerWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)0.70.0−0.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Darius SlaytonWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)7.79.3+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15DK MetcalfWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)13.414.5+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Gunner OlszewskiWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Terry McLaurinWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)13.015.9+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Deebo Samuel Sr.WR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)10.97.3−3.6❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Cody WhiteWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)2.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Isaiah HodginsWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)6.21.4−4.8❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)2.20.0−2.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Collin JohnsonWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Devin DuvernayWR CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.50.0−2.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15K.J. OsbornWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.8––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jalen ReagorWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tim JonesWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)0.9––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jaylen WaddleWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)12.94.6−8.3❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Dee EskridgeWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.00.0−1.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Dyami BrownWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)4.5-1.6−6.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Dez FitzpatrickWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ihmir Smith-MarsetteWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)1.3––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Austin TrammellWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)2.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tutu AtwellWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)4.51.9−2.6voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Ben SkowronekWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)1.10.0−1.1❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Tay MartinWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Rashid ShaheedWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)8.512.1+3.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Treylon BurksWR WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)3.70.0−3.7❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Calvin Austin IIIWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)7.00.0−7.0❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Erik EzukanmaWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.5––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Tyquan ThorntonWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)4.36.7+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)14.716.4+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Xavier SmithWR LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1)4.10.0−4.1voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Jason BrownleeWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)1.2––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Grant DuBoseWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)1.6––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Nikko RemigioWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)0.90.0−0.9❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)21.518.3−3.2❌Backtest ·
2025 W15Quentin JohnstonWR LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)7.7––voidBacktest ·
2025 W15Parker WashingtonWR JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)7.38.3+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W15Kayshon BoutteWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)8.54.0−4.5❌Backtest ·
2025 W15DeMario DouglasWR NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)6.00.5−5.5❌Backtest ·

NewerPage 5 of 27 · 2,627 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse