Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W15 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 10.4 | 5.5 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 11.1 | 4.0 | −7.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ashton JeantyRB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 8.2 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle WilliamsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | 1.9 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Devin NealRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | 10.2 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 8.9 | 3.3 | −5.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Dalen CambreWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | RJ HarveyRB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 11.2 | 10.5 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 3.6 | 1.6 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 5.4 | 2.7 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Samaje PerineRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 5.5 | 4.8 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Will DisslyTE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 2.9 | 1.1 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tanner HudsonTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 2.1 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 9.7 | 1.9 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected −0.3) | 16.9 | 11.1 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Noah FantTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 4.8 | 2.5 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cody WhiteWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 1.9 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.6) | 13.3 | 9.1 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 12.9 | 11.2 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 15.4 | 12.2 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Romeo DoubsWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 12.8 | 0.0 | −12.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0) | 7.1 | 4.9 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Chris BrooksRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 1.6 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Julian HillTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Jake BoboWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 1.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Malik WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 7.0 | 4.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Adonai MitchellWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 8.2 | 3.4 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 12.4 | 3.7 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 9.5 | 1.7 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Matthew StaffordQB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected −0.6) | 19.7 | 11.6 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DeAndre HopkinsWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 4.5 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 12.5 | 5.6 | −6.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 4.3 | 0.0 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Johnny MundtTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 9.4 | 5.3 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 5.2 | 1.6 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 5.1 | 2.4 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 9.6 | 4.7 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Allen LazardWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 2.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 21.8 | 6.5 | −15.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Saquon BarkleyRB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 17.6 | 5.6 | −12.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 10.4 | 5.3 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 3.4 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 11.3 | 8.9 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Darnell MooneyWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 12.7 | 4.5 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jalen HurtsQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.3) | 19.4 | 16.3 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Rashod BatemanWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 8.7 | 0.0 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.0) | 5.1 | 0.0 | −5.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 16.0 | 9.8 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kenny GainwellRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 9.8 | 6.5 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Travis EtienneRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 16.0 | 5.1 | −10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | 1.2 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 15.6 | 14.7 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 3.9 | 2.2 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 17.5 | 13.2 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Evan HullRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 1.5 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 14.7 | 6.6 | −8.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 3.6 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dylan DrummondWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.9 | 1.3 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Marvin Mims Jr.WR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 6.1 | 3.7 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Zay FlowersWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 18.7 | 0.6 | −18.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Davis AllenTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 3.5 | 1.4 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 20.6 | 13.2 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 23.9 | 11.6 | −12.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 4.6 | 0.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Isaiah WilliamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 3.1 | 0.0 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Bo NixQB DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.6) | 18.6 | 16.4 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Jordan WhittingtonWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 0.0 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devontez WalkerWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 12.3 | 4.1 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 10.6 | 4.8 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Caleb WilliamsQB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected −0.3) | 14.4 | 9.5 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.0) | 6.6 | 5.8 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Kaleb JohnsonRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 0.3 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Dylan SampsonRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 2.3 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Devin NealRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 13.2 | 9.9 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Konata MumpfieldWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | 0.0 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Terrance FergusonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse