Edgehalla

Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth

Starters out on defense: every call

Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.

2024 backtest

716–1049–204

40.6% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.6% (95% 38.3%–42.9%) vs baseline 39.1%

2025 backtest

681–991–185

40.7% vs 39.1% baseline

Win rate 40.7% (95% 38.4%–43.1%) vs baseline 39.1%

2026 live (from Week 5)

–

first live calls this week

2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)

55–83–12

39.9% vs 39.4% baseline

Win rate 39.9% (95% 32.1%–48.2%) vs baseline 39.4%

2024–25 by position and by expected effect

PositionW–L–PWin %Baseline
RB349–510–8740.6%38.2%
TE371–558–19439.9%39.1%
QB198–194–1950.5%49.6%
WR479–778–8938.1%36.3%
Expected effect (PPR)W–L–PWin %Baseline
flag716–1049–20440.6%39.1%
0.25–0.5651–959–18340.4%38.7%
0.5–129–31–248.3%48.3%
1+1–150.0%49.6%

Call log

SeasonAll202420252026
SourceAllBacktestBacktest (after the fact)Live
PositionAllQBRBWRTE
ResultAll✅ Win❌ LossPushVoidNot graded
Starters out on defense calls, newest first
WeekPlayerCallProjActualMarginResultSource · made
2025 W11Rico DowdleRB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3)12.115.0+2.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Jordan LoveQB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.3)16.817.7+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Cole KmetTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)4.99.5+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tee HigginsWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)13.715.3+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Davis MillsQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6)14.016.4+2.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tommy TrembleTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)3.46.4+3.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Bam KnightRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1)9.014.5+5.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11James CookRB BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)18.520.4+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tyler AllgeierRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)6.49.6+3.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11John FitzPatrickTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)0.91.5+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Jordan MasonRB MINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)8.310.5+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Chig OkonkwoTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)6.48.6+2.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Keaton MitchellRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)2.87.4+4.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Bijan RobinsonRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)21.230.3+9.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tre TuckerWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3)10.614.7+4.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Josh WhyleTE GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)1.27.2+6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Chase BrownRB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)17.218.7+1.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.39.5+5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Emanuel WilsonRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)6.013.9+7.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Brycen TremayneWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)1.93.7+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Sean TuckerRB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)5.134.0+28.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Cedric TillmanWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)5.78.2+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Bryce YoungQB CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3)11.631.8+20.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Brock BowersTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0)13.514.2+0.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Xavier LegetteWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)6.918.3+11.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Ja'Tavion SandersTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)4.56.2+1.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Jalen CokerWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)5.311.2+5.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Colson YankoffTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)0.11.4+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Rasheen AliRB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1)1.22.5+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Malachi CorleyWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1)1.32.9+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Tetairoa McMillanWR CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)11.833.0+21.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)6.57.0+0.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Pat BryantWR DENBoost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1)3.613.2+9.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Mitchell EvansTE CARBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0)1.74.8+3.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Ollie Gordon IIRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)3.710.5+6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Kyle MonangaiRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1)7.310.7+3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Gunnar HelmTE TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1)4.46.9+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W11Cam WardQB TENBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.6)9.713.1+3.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W11TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)17.132.3+15.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Tyler LockettWR LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1)4.39.4+5.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Marcus MariotaQB WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected −0.3)14.418.7+4.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Kalif RaymondWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)3.89.9+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jared GoffQB DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.3)18.824.8+6.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected −0.3)13.519.4+5.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Johnny MundtTE JAXBoost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0)2.53.1+0.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W10David NjokuTE CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)8.710.1+1.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Cooper KuppWR SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3)8.59.4+0.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Dalton SchultzTE HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)8.218.3+10.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Baker MayfieldQB TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected −0.3)18.722.9+4.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Devin SingletaryRB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3)4.110.3+6.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Greg DortchWR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)3.76.2+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Darius SlaytonWR NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)9.012.9+3.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Dawson KnoxTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)4.86.7+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10D'Andre SwiftRB CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1)13.714.8+1.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jerry JeudyWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)11.919.8+7.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Nico CollinsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)12.222.6+10.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jaylen WaddleWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)14.219.4+5.2✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Davis MillsQB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.6)11.727.7+16.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jameson WilliamsWR DETBoost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1)11.623.9+12.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Tyler AllgeierRB ATLBoost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1)5.017.7+12.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Tucker FiskTE LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0)0.91.7+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Alec PierceWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1)12.918.4+5.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Trey McBrideTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)15.127.7+12.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Kyren WilliamsRB LARBoost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.3)17.522.4+4.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Charlie KolarTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0)2.33.3+1.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Cade OttonTE TBBoost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0)8.717.2+8.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Tyrell ShaversWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.53.4+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Emari DemercadoRB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)4.513.4+8.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10De'Von AchaneRB MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)18.440.5+22.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Elijah HigginsTE ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.0)2.63.9+1.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Zach CharbonnetRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)10.614.3+3.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W10George HolaniRB SEABoost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1)2.89.1+6.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Roman WilsonWR PITBoost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1)3.011.5+8.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Theo JohnsonTE NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0)8.414.5+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1)11.714.3+2.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Malik WashingtonWR MIABoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3)7.49.3+1.9✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Keon ColemanWR BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)11.113.6+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Ben SinnottTE WASBoost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0)0.67.4+6.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Malachi CorleyWR CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1)1.43.2+1.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Colston LovelandTE CHIBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0)7.09.5+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jayden HigginsWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)3.915.2+11.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jaylin NoelWR HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)4.07.5+3.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jackson HawesTE BUFBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1)2.99.6+6.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Woody MarksRB HOUBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)7.816.1+8.3✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Jaxson DartQB NYGBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.3)15.926.3+10.4✅Backtest ·
2025 W10Dillon GabrielQB CLEBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.6)12.120.1+8.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W10TreVeyon HendersonRB NEBoost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1)10.528.0+17.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Joe FlaccoQB CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected −0.3)16.930.7+13.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Travis KelceTE KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)11.112.6+1.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Geno SmithQB LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.6)13.726.3+12.6✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jacoby BrissettQB ARIBoost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.6)17.224.8+7.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Ian ThomasTE LVBoost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1)1.11.9+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Mark AndrewsTE BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0)10.916.6+5.7✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Lamar JacksonQB BALBoost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3)23.625.6+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Marquise BrownWR KCBoost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1)8.49.3+0.8✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Josh JacobsRB GBBoost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1)17.920.0+2.0✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Michael PittmanWR INDBoost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1)14.420.5+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Jauan JenningsWR SFBoost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3)11.614.1+2.5✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Justin HerbertQB LACBoost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected −0.6)21.627.7+6.1✅Backtest ·
2025 W9Tee HigginsWR CINBoost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1)12.333.1+20.8✅Backtest ·

NewerPage 5 of 15 · 1,452 callsOlder

How this works

Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.

Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.

Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse