Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W12 | Kyle JuszczykRB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 0.0 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Stefon DiggsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 16.6 | 4.0 | −12.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.6) | 21.4 | 17.2 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Johnny MundtTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 3.2 | 2.2 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 8.7 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tim PatrickWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Anthony FirkserTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 11.2 | 5.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jonnu SmithTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 6.5 | 5.8 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ross DwelleyTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 11.8 | 2.1 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected −0.3) | 22.3 | 7.2 | −15.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected −0.3) | 15.7 | 3.5 | −12.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected −0.6) | 19.0 | 8.1 | −10.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dante PettisWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 2.4 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Justice HillRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 6.2 | 0.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.0) | 6.6 | 5.9 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tony PollardRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 9.4 | 8.1 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | David MontgomeryRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 12.5 | 6.7 | −5.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 6.1 | 4.7 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Rico DowdleRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 13.0 | 11.4 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 16.1 | 1.9 | −14.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 1.3 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Quintin MorrisTE JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 0.0 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | 0.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Luke FarrellTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | 1.3 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | 0.0 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jake TongesTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 3.3 | 0.0 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 19.6 | 16.0 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 14.7 | 0.0 | −14.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.4) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jordan MasonRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 6.1 | 4.2 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Julius ChestnutRB TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 0.3 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 12.5 | 3.6 | −8.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 6.3 | 2.0 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Charlie KolarTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Cade OttonTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 9.0 | 6.1 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Keaton MitchellRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | 2.9 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | 4.2 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh WhyleTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 1.8 | 1.1 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Chase BrownRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 16.7 | 15.0 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 10.5 | 3.5 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 8.3 | 6.1 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 3.0 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Puka NacuaWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 20.4 | 16.7 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Luke MusgraveTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | 1.7 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Zach CharbonnetRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 12.6 | 9.5 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 5.3 | 1.6 | −3.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 7.9 | 3.8 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Drake MayeQB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected −0.3) | 22.2 | 16.0 | −6.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Nick KallerupTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tahj BrooksRB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 0.5 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | LeQuint Allen Jr.RB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 0.2 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Keleki LatuTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Robbie OuztsRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Bhayshul TutenRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 6.4 | 1.7 | −4.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Elijah ArroyoTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 1.5 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Tyler ShoughQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected −0.3) | 13.8 | 7.9 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Joe FlaccoQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.3) | 16.5 | 9.9 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 10.2 | 8.2 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 13.1 | 9.3 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Geno SmithQB LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected −0.8) | 15.3 | 12.9 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Marcus MariotaQB WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected −0.3) | 16.2 | 15.4 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Robbie ChosenWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 0.0 | −6.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | 2.3 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 12.7 | 8.5 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Aaron JonesRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 13.4 | 11.1 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Kendrick BourneWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 8.4 | 0.0 | −8.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Patrick RicardRB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 0.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 11.8 | 10.4 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 13.2 | 9.9 | −3.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Nick ChubbRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 7.8 | 1.7 | −6.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 8.1 | 6.9 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 2.4 | 0.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Trayveon WilliamsRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.3) | 1.4 | 0.9 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | D'Ernest JohnsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | 0.6 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Drew SampleTE CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 6.7 | 3.3 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Josh JacobsRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 18.0 | 4.0 | −14.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jakob JohnsonRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Nick Westbrook-IkhineWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 4.6 | 0.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Reggie GilliamRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Tua TagovailoaQB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected −0.6) | 15.7 | 6.8 | −8.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 12.5 | 9.4 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | D'Andre SwiftRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.1) | 14.2 | 9.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected −0.3) | 18.9 | 3.3 | −15.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 9.3 | 5.1 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.3) | 8.0 | 3.8 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Elijah MitchellRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | 0.0 | −3.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jaylen WaddleWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.3) | 15.9 | 8.2 | −7.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse