Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W9 | Baylor CuppTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Brock BowersTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 10.0 | 43.3 | +33.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaheim BellTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Hayden RucciTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tip ReimanTE ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jared WileyTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Theo JohnsonTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 9.3 | 11.7 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 12.5 | 7.6 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 10.9 | 11.8 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Thomas Fidone IITE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Carter RunyonTE LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Gunnar HelmTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 5.0 | 2.5 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Marcedes LewisTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Darren WallerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 6.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Geoff SwaimTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Nick VannettTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Evan EngramTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 8.5 | 7.6 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | David NjokuTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 6.9 | 13.7 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Gerald EverettTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 13.7 | 17.8 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 3.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 11.8 | 4.4 | −7.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Durham SmytheTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Irv SmithTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Stephen CarlsonTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 8.9 | 4.6 | −4.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Josh OliverTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dawson KnoxTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 6.1 | 2.5 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 8.6 | 10.3 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Harrison BryantTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Adam TrautmanTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jack StollTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Feleipe FranksTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 10.5 | 14.9 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 4.5 | 1.4 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 3.2 | 0.0 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Greg DulcichTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | 0.0 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | James MitchellTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Nick MuseTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 0.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 3.1 | 2.6 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Lucas KrullTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | E.J. JenkinsTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Cameron LatuTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Nate AdkinsTE DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ben SimsTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 8.6 | 3.3 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ja'Tavion SandersTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 4.9 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Cade StoverTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Brenden BatesTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Treyton WelchTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Dallin HolkerTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Colston LovelandTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 6.9 | 6.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Mitchell EvansTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 2.4 | 0.0 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Jackson HawesTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.7 | 3.5 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Moliki MatavaoTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ben YurosekTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 1.5 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Harold Fannin Jr.TE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 8.9 | 18.4 | +9.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Zach ErtzTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 12.3 | 12.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Travis KelceTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 12.3 | 8.4 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jordan MatthewsTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | C.J. UzomahTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 4.0 | 9.1 | +5.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 10.0 | 7.3 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyler HigbeeTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 8.5 | 4.9 | −3.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 1.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Eric SaubertTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Robert TonyanTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 0.1 | 0.0 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Dallas GoedertTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 11.8 | 4.8 | −7.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Foster MoreauTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Joseph FortsonTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Mitchell WilcoxTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Juwan JohnsonTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 7.1 | 12.9 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tyler MabryTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.0) | 0.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Colby ParkinsonTE LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.0) | 3.4 | 7.7 | +4.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Charlie WoernerTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Stephen SullivanTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kenny YeboahTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | John BatesTE WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 1.5 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.0) | 4.0 | 3.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jack StollTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Feleipe FranksTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kylen GransonTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 9.1 | 13.2 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 5.6 | 1.0 | −4.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Teagan QuitorianoTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.0) | 0.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | James MitchellTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.0) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ko KieftTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.0) | 0.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Zaire Mitchell-PadenTE NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse