Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W10 | Elijah MooreWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | 2.8 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Bam KnightRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 8.5 | 4.3 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | James CookRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 20.7 | 10.7 | −10.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jerome FordRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 0.1 | −6.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Rashid ShaheedWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 12.0 | 3.3 | −8.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 0.0 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 9.1 | 3.4 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN, expected +0.0) | 5.3 | 3.7 | −1.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Daniel BellingerTE NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.0) | 3.2 | 1.8 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Wan'Dale RobinsonWR NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 13.9 | 12.2 | −1.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kenneth Walker IIIRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 10.0 | 8.0 | −2.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Xavier GipsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 19.0 | 10.8 | −8.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 22.1 | 20.3 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Darnell WashingtonTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | 2.5 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 10.8 | 5.5 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 0.0 | −5.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Blake WhiteheartTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dalton KincaidTE BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 9.6 | 5.7 | −3.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Cedric TillmanWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 6.6 | 3.1 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 11.0 | 1.3 | −9.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jamari ThrashWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 0.0 | −2.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tyrone Tracy Jr.RB NYG | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 8.8 | 8.1 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | British BrooksRB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Terrell JenningsRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 0.5 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 6.8 | 0.3 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ray DavisRB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | 0.8 | −2.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Tahj WashingtonWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.3) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Darius CooperWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dylan SampsonRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 5.0 | 0.9 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Oronde Gadsden IITE LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.0) | 12.1 | 4.3 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Kyle MonangaiRB CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 12.0 | 8.8 | −3.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dominic LovettWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Gage LarvadainWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | 0.0 | −2.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Dont'e Thornton Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 5.2 | 1.4 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Robbie OuztsRB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 0.9 | 0.0 | −0.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ricky White IIIWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | 0.0 | −1.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Jack BechWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | 0.0 | −2.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Elijah ArroyoTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.0) | 5.5 | 1.5 | −4.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Quinshon JudkinsRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.3) | 13.1 | 10.5 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Aaron RodgersQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected −0.3) | 17.4 | 12.1 | −5.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Keenan AllenWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 13.4 | 6.1 | −7.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Brandin CooksWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 4.3 | 3.6 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler LockettWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 4.4 | 3.0 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Demarcus RobinsonWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 4.9 | 0.0 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.0) | 9.7 | 9.1 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mo Alie-CoxTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 0.0 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.0) | 9.4 | 6.9 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kendrick BourneWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 8.8 | 5.4 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 6.0 | 1.2 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected −0.6) | 22.6 | 10.5 | −12.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 7.2 | 6.6 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 11.8 | 6.3 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Alec IngoldRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | 0.0 | −2.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 0.9 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 15.1 | 2.6 | −12.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Daniel JonesQB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected −0.8) | 20.0 | 14.1 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | James ProcheWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Van JeffersonWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 3.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 9.4 | 5.9 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Noah GrayTE KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 3.8 | 0.0 | −3.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 22.0 | 17.1 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kyle PittsTE ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE, expected +0.0) | 10.9 | 7.8 | −3.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mac JonesQB SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected −0.8) | 18.2 | 15.8 | −2.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 14.2 | 8.7 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Andrew OgletreeTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | John FitzPatrickTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 1.0 | 0.0 | −1.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tanner ConnerTE MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.0) | 4.2 | 0.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 7.2 | 3.0 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 11.0 | 6.8 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 6.8 | 6.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Emanuel WilsonRB GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.1) | 6.8 | 2.7 | −4.1 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tucker KraftTE GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR, expected +0.0) | 11.8 | 4.0 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | De'Von AchaneRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 18.0 | 16.6 | −1.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | C.J. StroudQB HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected −0.3) | 15.8 | 4.4 | −11.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kimani VidalRB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 12.6 | 3.0 | −9.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | David Martin-RobinsonTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.0) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | -0.6 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 16.3 | 8.5 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | 6.0 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 14.6 | 9.6 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Brashard SmithRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 7.2 | 0.7 | −6.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler WarrenTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 12.5 | 7.6 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | 1.4 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 6.0 | -0.3 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Elic AyomanorWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 10.2 | 7.6 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | 0.0 | −1.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ollie Gordon IIRB MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BAL, expected +0.1) | 3.7 | 1.9 | −1.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse