Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 W18 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 4.0 | 5.6 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | AJ BarnerTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.5 | 14.4 | +10.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 12.7 | 17.3 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 0.9 | 2.2 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Michael Penix Jr.QB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 16.4 | 25.0 | +8.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Russell WilsonQB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 14.2 | 17.7 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mike EvansWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 19.4 | 29.7 | +10.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Allen RobinsonWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 1.0 | 3.1 | +2.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Amari CooperWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 6.9 | 14.6 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Nick VannettTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 1.8 | 7.8 | +6.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | C.J. HamRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 0.8 | 3.5 | +2.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jared GoffQB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 18.8 | 25.8 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 2.8 | 3.8 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Patrick MahomesQB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 17.3 | 26.0 | +8.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 1.2 | 2.9 | +1.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | D'Onta ForemanRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | 4.9 | +2.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyler ConklinTE NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 6.1 | 21.7 | +15.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jordan AkinsTE CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 6.3 | 10.9 | +4.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 3.4 | 14.0 | +10.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 2.7 | 4.7 | +2.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 13.2 | 14.8 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Lamar JacksonQB BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 22.5 | 29.4 | +6.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | KhaDarel HodgeWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 0.9 | 1.9 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Baker MayfieldQB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 20.5 | 34.6 | +14.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Josh AllenQB BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 21.9 | 23.0 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Dante PettisWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 4.8 | 5.7 | +0.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sam DarnoldQB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 18.5 | 24.8 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | T.J. HockensonTE MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 10.8 | 11.8 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 4.0 | 4.8 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 2.0 | 8.6 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 7.1 | 8.6 | +1.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 18.5 | 27.6 | +9.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 17.4 | 24.4 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Clyde Edwards-HelaireRB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.6 | 5.0 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jerry JeudyWR CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 13.7 | 21.4 | +7.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 17.2 | 40.1 | +22.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Cam AkersRB MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 4.5 | 11.3 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Joe BurrowQB CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 21.6 | 37.0 | +15.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kylen GransonTE IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.9 | 6.4 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pat FreiermuthTE PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 9.1 | 11.0 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 13.6 | 30.0 | +16.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Amon-Ra St. BrownWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 19.0 | 20.0 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Mac JonesQB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 10.8 | 17.2 | +6.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Grant CalcaterraTE PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.2 | 4.4 | +1.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jaylen WarrenRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 12.0 | 16.2 | +4.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Drake LondonWR ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 12.6 | 24.5 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Connor HeywardRB PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 1.2 | 1.8 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Garrett WilsonWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 13.7 | 17.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX) | 8.0 | 10.9 | +2.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Pierre StrongRB CLE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.5 | 7.8 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Kenny PickettQB PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 12.2 | 16.0 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 7.8 | 8.9 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Tyrell ShaversWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 0.9 | 13.9 | +13.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.5 | 4.6 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sean TuckerRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.6 | 5.4 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Payne DurhamTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 4.8 | 11.6 | +6.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Sam LaPortaTE DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 11.0 | 18.4 | +7.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jahmyr GibbsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 24.9 | 26.3 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bryce YoungQB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 13.8 | 16.9 | +3.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Bucky IrvingRB TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 15.8 | 23.0 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Spencer RattlerQB NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 11.5 | 13.3 | +1.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Devin CulpTE TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 0.6 | 8.2 | +7.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 11.2 | 15.6 | +4.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Jalen McMillanWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 11.1 | 23.0 | +11.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 10.6 | 22.9 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W17 | Keon ColemanWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 8.7 | 11.7 | +3.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Keenan AllenWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 13.0 | 29.1 | +16.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Geno SmithQB SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 14.3 | 21.4 | +7.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Davante AdamsWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 16.1 | 19.8 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Austin HooperTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.5 | 9.5 | +4.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Hunter HenryTE NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 10.1 | 13.9 | +3.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | George KittleTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 13.0 | 18.6 | +5.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Pharaoh BrownTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.3 | 2.7 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Samaje PerineRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 3.3 | 8.0 | +4.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | James ConnerRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 22.7 | 26.6 | +3.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Eric SaubertTE SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 1.1 | 7.2 | +6.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kareem HuntRB KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU) | 10.8 | 15.9 | +5.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Dalton SchultzTE HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 8.0 | 15.5 | +7.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Mark AndrewsTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 11.1 | 13.8 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyler MurrayQB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 18.8 | 20.4 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Craig ReynoldsRB DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI) | 1.7 | 3.3 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Noah FantTE SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 7.0 | 8.0 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jonathan TaylorRB IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 14.7 | 39.8 | +25.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Cole KmetTE CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 6.6 | 8.9 | +2.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Antonio GibsonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 5.0 | 5.6 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Justin HerbertQB LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 16.4 | 22.2 | +5.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeeJay DallasRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 1.8 | 7.1 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chuba HubbardRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 16.9 | 32.5 | +15.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Rhamondre StevensonRB NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 11.3 | 12.3 | +1.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Michael CarterRB ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.9 | 9.8 | +5.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tommy TrembleTE CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 5.6 | 6.2 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Raheem BlackshearRB CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 0.6 | 1.3 | +0.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Chig OkonkwoTE TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 6.7 | 19.1 | +12.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Isaiah LikelyTE BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT) | 7.8 | 11.9 | +4.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Kyren WilliamsRB LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 18.3 | 19.9 | +1.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Jake FergusonTE DAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 8.1 | 10.0 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Bijan RobinsonRB ATL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 21.0 | 24.3 | +3.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Tank BigsbyRB JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 6.6 | 10.1 | +3.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 2.8 | 10.8 | +8.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse