Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 W9 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyler BoydWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Trent TaylorWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kendrick BourneWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 8.8 | 5.4 | −3.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mike WilliamsWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | JuJu Smith-SchusterWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 6.0 | 1.2 | −4.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 5.7 | 0.0 | −5.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Marquez Valdes-ScantlingWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 4.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Equanimeous St. BrownWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Justin WatsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Russell GageWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Braxton BerriosWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Christian KirkWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 7.2 | 6.6 | −0.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | DJ CharkWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Dante PettisWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 4.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Malik TurnerWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 0.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Steven SimsWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jakobi MeyersWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 11.8 | 6.3 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 0.0 | −2.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Diontae JohnsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 4.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Trenton IrwinWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Greg DortchWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 4.4 | 0.9 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Alex BachmanWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | DK MetcalfWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 15.1 | 2.6 | −12.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Marquise BrownWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 8.4 | 9.3 | +0.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | James ProcheWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | 0.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mason KinseyWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 0.6 | 0.0 | −0.6 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kristian WilkersonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 14.4 | 20.5 | +6.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jauan JenningsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 11.6 | 14.1 | +2.5 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Brandon AiyukWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 10.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Laviska Shenault Jr.WR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jalen ReagorWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 12.3 | 33.1 | +20.8 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Van JeffersonWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 5.0 | 3.1 | −1.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tim JonesWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | 2.5 | +1.4 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 3.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Nico CollinsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 13.2 | 14.5 | +1.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Dyami BrownWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 9.4 | 5.9 | −3.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Dez FitzpatrickWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Simi FehokoWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 0.7 | 0.0 | −0.7 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Austin TrammellWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 0.0 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ben SkowronekWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 22.0 | 17.1 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Justyn RossWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kevin Austin Jr.WR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chris OlaveWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 14.2 | 8.7 | −5.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Montrell WashingtonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Brandon JohnsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Kendric PryorWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Rashid ShaheedWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 9.6 | 11.8 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Alec PierceWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 17.5 | +5.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 10.0 | 10.6 | +0.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Skyy MooreWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.2 | 3.1 | +1.9 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tyquan ThorntonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 0.0 | −5.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jason BrownleeWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 1.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Nikko RemigioWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Quentin JohnstonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 11.6 | 15.3 | +3.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 8.0 | 9.1 | +1.1 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 11.0 | 6.8 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Derius DavisWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Charlie JonesWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 0.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Parker WashingtonWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 9.8 | 17.0 | +7.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 6.8 | 6.0 | −0.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Andrei IosivasWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 5.7 | 18.0 | +12.3 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jalen BrooksWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.1 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ronnie BellWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Elijah CooksWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jared WayneWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 2.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mitchell TinsleyWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 3.7 | +2.7 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Tank DellWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 10.4 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Josh DownsWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 11.1 | 17.7 | +6.6 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Rashee RiceWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 16.4 | 18.6 | +2.2 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jacob CowingWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Bub MeansWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jha'Quan JacksonWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Brenden RiceWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Devaughn VeleWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 2.5 | 0.0 | −2.5 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Xavier WeaverWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 0.0 | −1.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ramel KeytonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Joshua CephusWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jermaine JacksonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Mason TiptonWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR, expected +0.1) | 1.2 | 0.0 | −1.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Bryce OliverWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 1.5 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaylen JohnsonWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Roman WilsonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 3.6 | -0.6 | −4.2 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jermaine BurtonWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.1) | 1.8 | – | – | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 11.6 | 22.6 | +11.0 | ✅ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Adonai MitchellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PIT, expected +0.1) | 4.0 | 1.7 | −2.3 | void | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV, expected +0.1) | 16.3 | 8.5 | −7.8 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 10.9 | 6.0 | −4.9 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Ladd McConkeyWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.1) | 14.6 | 9.6 | −5.0 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jayden HigginsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 5.8 | 1.4 | −4.4 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jaylin NoelWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN, expected +0.1) | 6.0 | -0.3 | −6.3 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Elic AyomanorWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 10.2 | 7.6 | −2.6 | ❌ | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jordan WatkinsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 2.9 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse