Matchup edge · QB myth · RB C · WR C · TE myth
Starters out on defense: every call
Each missing regular defensive starter (CB for WRs, S/LB for TEs, DL/LB for RBs, DB for QBs) adds points to the opposing player.
2024 backtest
716–1049–204
40.6% vs 39.1% baseline
2025 backtest
681–991–185
40.7% vs 39.1% baseline
2026 live (from Week 5)
–
first live calls this week
2026 weeks 1–4 (after the fact)
55–83–12
39.9% vs 39.4% baseline
2024–25 by position and by expected effect
| Position | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| RB | 349–510–87 | 40.6% | 38.2% |
| TE | 371–558–194 | 39.9% | 39.1% |
| QB | 198–194–19 | 50.5% | 49.6% |
| WR | 479–778–89 | 38.1% | 36.3% |
| Expected effect (PPR) | W–L–P | Win % | Baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| flag | 716–1049–204 | 40.6% | 39.1% |
| 0.25–0.5 | 651–959–183 | 40.4% | 38.7% |
| 0.5–1 | 29–31–2 | 48.3% | 48.3% |
| 1+ | 1–1 | 50.0% | 49.6% |
Call log
| Week | Player | Call | Proj | Actual | Margin | Result | Source · made |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 W4 | Brian Thomas Jr.WR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 9.8 | 9.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2026 W3 | Mike EvansWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 12.7 | 12.4 | −0.3 | push | Backtest (after the fact) · |
| 2025 W18 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs HOU, expected +0.1) | 0.2 | 0.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Shedrick JacksonWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 2.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Tetairoa McMillanWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 12.1 | 12.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W18 | Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 2.5 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Adam ThielenWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 3.2 | 3.4 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Chris MooreWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.7 | 2.5 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Cedrick Wilson Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.1) | 1.4 | 1.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Tre TuckerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 9.9 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W17 | Ke'Shawn WilliamsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI, expected +0.1) | 1.0 | 1.5 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Laquon TreadwellWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jalen CokerWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 7.8 | 7.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | KeAndre Lambert-SmithWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 2.2 | 2.0 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W16 | Jimmy Horn Jr.WR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB, expected +0.3) | 2.1 | 2.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Mack HollinsWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF, expected +0.1) | 8.3 | 8.1 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND, expected +0.1) | 9.5 | 9.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W15 | Jakobi MeyersWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 12.2 | 12.1 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W14 | John Metchie IIIWR NYJ | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 6.9 | 7.4 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 6.5 | 6.3 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 11.4 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | LaJohntay WesterWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN, expected +0.1) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W13 | Efton Chism IIIWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | DeVonta SmithWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 15.3 | 14.9 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W12 | Xavier GipsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.1) | 1.3 | 1.3 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Chris MooreWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 4.8 | 4.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Troy FranklinWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC, expected +0.1) | 12.5 | 12.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W11 | Jack BechWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 2.7 | 2.9 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Ashton DulinWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL, expected +0.1) | 1.9 | 2.2 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA, expected +0.1) | 12.5 | 12.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Michael WilsonWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 7.5 | 7.4 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W10 | Isaac TeSlaaWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs WAS, expected +0.1) | 2.0 | 2.1 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Jordan WatkinsWR SF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG, expected +0.3) | 2.9 | 2.9 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W9 | Chimere DikeWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC, expected +0.1) | 7.3 | 7.5 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CHI, expected +0.3) | 1.9 | 1.6 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | Ja'Marr ChaseWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ, expected +0.1) | 21.4 | 21.1 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W8 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CLE, expected +0.1) | 5.9 | 5.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Ryan MillerWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.4) | 2.6 | 2.4 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W7 | Jaylin LaneWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL, expected +0.3) | 8.9 | 9.0 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Cooper KuppWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs JAX, expected +0.1) | 12.0 | 12.0 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W6 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.3) | 10.2 | 10.6 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Zay JonesWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 2.5 | 2.8 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET, expected +0.1) | 11.4 | 11.2 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Kameron JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SEA, expected +0.1) | 0.5 | 0.2 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W5 | Marvin Harrison Jr.WR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 13.8 | 13.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN, expected +0.3) | 3.7 | 3.7 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2025 W4 | Tez JohnsonWR TB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs PHI, expected +0.1) | 2.6 | 2.3 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Zach PascalWR ARI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NE) | 5.2 | 5.5 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Lil'Jordan HumphreyWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 4.5 | 4.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W18 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.1 | 5.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DJ MooreWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DET) | 14.0 | 14.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | Josh PalmerWR LAC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DEN) | 9.5 | 9.1 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W16 | DeMario DouglasWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 7.9 | 7.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 3.0 | 3.2 | +0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tylan WallaceWR BAL | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 2.0 | 1.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 1.3 | 1.7 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Jameson WilliamsWR DET | Boost (Starters out on defense vs BUF) | 12.6 | 12.7 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | John Metchie IIIWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 4.1 | 3.7 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Xavier HutchinsonWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 2.3 | 2.3 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Tyler ScottWR CHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIN) | 1.1 | 1.5 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W15 | Bryce OliverWR TEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 1.8 | 1.8 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W14 | Terrace Marshall Jr.WR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TB) | 1.5 | 1.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CIN) | 5.2 | 5.3 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Tutu AtwellWR LAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 5.9 | 5.9 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W13 | Xavier WorthyWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 10.0 | 10.4 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W12 | Javon BakerWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.4 | 0.0 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Robert WoodsWR HOU | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.7 | 3.3 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Odell Beckham Jr.WR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LV) | 3.0 | 3.3 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Courtland SuttonWR DEN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ATL) | 14.9 | 14.8 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | DK MetcalfWR SEA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs SF) | 13.6 | 14.0 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Khalil ShakirWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs KC) | 15.0 | 15.0 | −0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W11 | Justin ShorterWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs MIA) | 0.5 | 0.0 | −0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W10 | Jahan DotsonWR PHI | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 3.9 | 3.7 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | David MooreWR CAR | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NO) | 3.7 | 4.0 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W9 | Kayshon BoutteWR NE | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 4.1 | 3.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Tyreek HillWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 12.8 | 13.2 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Dee EskridgeWR MIA | Boost (Starters out on defense vs ARI) | 1.5 | 1.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W8 | Bub MeansWR NO | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 4.2 | 4.6 | +0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Terry McLaurinWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 16.2 | 15.8 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | DJ TurnerWR LV | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.8 | 3.7 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Dyami BrownWR WAS | Boost (Starters out on defense vs CAR) | 3.3 | 3.3 | +0.0 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W7 | Calvin Austin IIIWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 4.5 | 4.6 | +0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Mack HollinsWR BUF | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYJ) | 7.3 | 7.8 | +0.5 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Michael PittmanWR IND | Boost (Starters out on defense vs TEN) | 12.9 | 12.5 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W6 | Tee HigginsWR CIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs NYG) | 15.1 | 14.7 | −0.4 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Christian KirkWR JAX | Boost (Starters out on defense vs IND) | 13.0 | 12.8 | −0.2 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Van JeffersonWR PIT | Boost (Starters out on defense vs DAL) | 5.7 | 5.6 | −0.1 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W5 | Malik HeathWR GB | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAR) | 3.1 | 3.4 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Justin WatsonWR KC | Boost (Starters out on defense vs LAC) | 4.3 | 4.7 | +0.3 | push | Backtest · |
| 2024 W4 | Trent SherfieldWR MIN | Boost (Starters out on defense vs GB) | 2.1 | 1.8 | −0.3 | push | Backtest · |
How this works
Win: a boost beats our projection mean, or a fade falls below it. Push: within 0.5 points. Void: did not play, or played under 25% of his usual snaps. Backtest calls use only data from before their week (the made time is 90 minutes before his kickoff); live calls are written before kickoff and cannot be edited afterwards. We list every loss. All angles and the method.
Charting data: FTN Data via nflverse, licensed CC BY-SA 4.0; our derived charting figures are shared under the same licence. Coverage allowed by defender: Pro Football Reference via nflverse. Coverage type (man/zone, shells): nflverse participation data. Play-by-play: nflverse.
Sources: nflverse, FTN Data via nflverse